Read five things in this story about how to suspend US weapon aid in Ukraine’s defense against the Russian attack.
1. Two weapon systems cannot be replaced
The defense battle would become more difficult immediately if two decisive US weapon systems are being disabled from Ukraine, says an expert.
These are medium-distance Himars rocket launchers and the long-range anti-aircraft missile system Patriot.
Rockets have been used in particular to prevent Russian offensive intentions. Russian troops have been struck, for example, with effective gray grenades.
– Himars have been very central to being able to hit the maintenance behind the Russian front line. Has been hit by depots, troops’ gathering areas and command sites, continues the analyst of the Black Bird Group following the Ukrainian war Pasi Paroinen.
According to Paroinen, Ukraine has constantly received the rockets used by the Himars system directly from the factory, so Ukraine has not had to be afraid that stocks will run out.
Delivery breaks would have a quick effect on their use. As a result, the Russians would be able to assemble the attack troops more easily.
The central part of Ukraine’s air defense is the Patriot Air Force System. It is a system that Ukraine is able to combat Russian ballistic missiles.
According to Paroinen, Ukraine has a handful of “Patriot batteries”. They have been located to protect the most important objects, such as Kiev and other major cities.
Sometimes Ukraine has also brought patriots near the front line.
– It has been made like ambushes for a Russian airplane. Those long distance missiles have been brought close to the front line, and then a few Russian fighter jets were dropped.
Ukraine also has two Italian-French Samp-T systems that also work on ballistic missiles, but two units are of little importance to the war.
In addition, Paroinen mentions the M2 Bradley assault tanks supplied by the United States.
Bradley wagons have been given to the Ukrainian elite units thrown in the worst places.
– These have been used in the last year and a half ago where the worst situation is. They have acted as a mobile reserve and counterattack.
Even though tanks do not stop right away, they must be able to be maintained and need spare parts, says Paroinen.
2. Ukraine is dependent on US intelligence assistance
According to the analyst, the end of intelligence for Ukraine would be even more serious than stopping material deliveries.
So far, it is not known whether the United States is about to stop the reconnaissance of Ukraine as well.
According to Black Bird analyst Pasi Paroinen, stopping US intelligence assistance would know Ukraine great difficulties.
Ukraine may have used information produced by US satellites, for example on changes in Russian grouping. Information has been used when paints have been selected for free and artillery.
Paroinen also considers the importance of signal inquiry. The United States has the ability to listen to telephone traffic in different countries, for example.
It is not known to what extent Ukraine has received this information. However, cyber -espionage can play a major role in Ukraine’s warfare. However, Paroinen points out that Ukraine has probably developed this expertise itself.
3. A huge amount of military assistance is still waiting to be delivered
Ukraine still has a billion dollars worth of military assistance from the United States. The support had to continue in a steady stream for years.
During three years of war, the US Congress has accepted military assistance to Ukraine for $ 86 billion. About 20 billion of this is still not received because military assistance It takes so long to deliver.
This is true from the reportpublished in Washington in the CSIS thought incubator over the weekend.
US Military Aid has been decided by the previous, president Joe Biden administration.
The graphics below show that help would still extend far into the future if Donald Trump The administration would not intervene.
The picture shows that US help dipped in 2024, as congress Republicans brake the continuation of the aid. Thus, Trump’s new decision to suspend help is not completely exceptional.
4. Trump can cancel promises by invoking an emergency situation
It is difficult to terminate the editorial agreements between the US defense industry and Ukraine, as the agreed weapon deliveries are already legally belonged to Ukraine.
The Trump administration can easily cancel the military assistance that the United States would have provided directly from its own warehouses.
In addition, the United States has given Ukraine money to buy American weapons. The termination of these contracts would be difficult, says researcher who wrote the CSIS conceptual incubator report Mark Cancian In Washington.
However, Trump may rely on an exceptional situation, which could also prevent the weapons commissioned by Ukraine abroad, Cancian estimates.
So far, it is unclear whether Trump’s decision to suspend assistance only applies to weapons provided by the US Department of Defense, or whether the United States also intends to address agreements between Ukraine and US weapons manufacturers.
5. Delivery of weapon aid may even have years of delay
The speed of supplying weapon aid depends on whether new or already used equipment will be sent to Ukraine.
More than half of the US weapon assistance to Ukraine is delivered directly from the US’s own warehouses. The United States of this kind of weapon aid will arrive on average eight months after the promise has been made, Cancian estimates.
If, on the other hand, weaponry includes new weapons manufactured by the defense industry, delivery will last very long, most often years.
It takes four months from the United States to enter into an agreement with a US weapon manufacturer. It may take a couple of years to manufacture. It may take more than a year and a half to the delivery of the entire weapon batch.
On the other hand, under normal circumstances, a long delay would guarantee the continuation of help for years.
“I was surprised that the level of delivery would remain high and stable for many years,” says Cancian.
4.3. at 4:35 pm News edited. In addition to the Patriot system, Ukraine has Samp-T systems that allow you to combat ballistic missiles.