At a time when a new Europe is preparing to emerge from the Ukrainian conflict, France will have to rethink its European policy. If the diplomacy of panache and loud talk has often had the favor of French public opinion, it can no longer act as a compass in a European game driven by unprecedented tectonic movements.
The first of these is the displacement of its center of gravity towards the East. On the front line in the face of the Russian threat, having demonstrated a lucidity that was lacking in the powers of Western Europe, our partners in Eastern Europe will now see their influence grow within the European concert. Thus, by its extraordinary generosity towards the Ukrainian refugees, the Polish nation – despite the populist and nationalist excesses of its leaders – has shown that it has its place at the heart of the European chessboard.
In Berlin, the decision taken by Chancellor Scholz to modernize his deliquescent army and to agree to a lasting effort on the military level, will profoundly modify the balance of the Franco-German couple. If Germany played there, until now, the role of dominant industrial and commercial power, France counterbalanced its economic weaknesses by its credibility as regards defense and its active foreign policy. Although everything will not change overnight – the budgetary effort being nothing if it is not accompanied by a strategic culture and a desire for projection which are still lacking across the Rhine – the fragile balance which existed between Paris and Berlin will nevertheless be permanently affected in the medium term.
No more great speeches
In a Europe whose gaze will turn towards the East, and at the heart of which will stand a more muscular Germany on the diplomatic and military levels, many voices – in the forefront of which that of Marine Le Pen – will howl at the decline of France. After having been one of Putin’s “useful idiots”, she will have no qualms about stirring up hatred towards a European Union which she will describe as being under the thumb of Berlin. That the German decision is, not the prelude to the return of a neo-Bismarckian Reich, but a decisive step to strengthen the security of all Europeans, is a nuance that, out of demagogy or ignorance, it will be careful to omit. .
But let’s be honest: even for a leader as pro-European as Emmanuel Macron, the temptation will be great to take refuge in posturing diplomacy and grand speeches. Now, nothing would be more harmful to the interests of France.
To continue to play a central role in Europe, our country must on the contrary be that power which, in the secrecy of the chancelleries, will build coalitions and, through its art of compromise, will win the confidence of its allies. To its natural penchant for grandiloquence, France should prefer concrete actions and specific proposals. To the temptation of light, she must favor humility.
Suggestion box
At the European level, it is around three axes that France will have to structure its “diplomacy of humility”. The first will consist of strengthening the ties that unite it with its partners, in particular the countries of Central, Eastern and Northern Europe, by making the effort to better understand their constraints, their history and their strategic priorities.
The second will be to continue to be Europe’s suggestion box. While there are indeed French proposals that have been a source of debate and controversy in Brussels and in European capitals, the fact remains that Paris has been able, over the past five years, to shape the European agenda and regain a leadership that had largely dissipated.
Finally, since the strength of a foreign policy often takes root in the credibility of domestic policy, the future President of the Republic will have to pursue the structural reforms that will allow our country to become, like our German neighbour, a power capable of rely on two solid pillars, both economic and diplomatic. Admittedly, humility has never, until now, been the main characteristic of French leaders. But at a time when a new European balance is emerging, our country has no other choice.