It is a scenario that has been repeatedly repeated for fifteen years in Israel. Cornered, close to the break with his allies, without solution, at the foot of the wall … And Benyamin Netanyahu always manages to get out of it. Extremely weakened in the political level in recent weeks, the Israeli Prime Minister has still managed to replace himself at the center of the game. Like in many crises in the past, including when he has – briefly – left power between 2021 and 2022.
But for many Israelis, the bet of their leader is this time not only political, but also existential: the strikes of the Hebrew state in Iran are widely acclaimed across the country. According to a survey of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 70 % of Israeli citizens interviewed say they are favorable to this operation, to which Tehran replied by strikes on their territory. This rate even rises to 83 % among Israeli Jews, according to another opinion study of the same faculty.
A quasi-consensus in Israel on the Iranian issue
For years, Benyamin Netanyahu has not ceased to highlight the threat represented by Iran for the security of Israel. In 2012, he even brandished the UN general assembly of the general assembly of a bomb. A happening intended to denounce the will of the Islamic Republic to acquire the atomic weapon. Since then, he continued to wave the hypothesis of a potential military conflict with the sworn enemy of Israel. This time, the Israeli leader joined the words to the acts, by triggering multiple strikes on sites of the Iranian nuclear program, Friday, June 13.
In Israel, the operation is therefore – almost – not debate. “There is a considerable consensus on the need for Israel to do everything to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,” said Cnn Yonathan Plesner, president of the Israeli Institute of Democracy. “This is not a question that has been the subject of an ideological debate.” In the media, even the most critical editorialists with regard to Benyamin Netanyahu’s policy today supported his action against Iran. “Iranian history is far above all controversy,” writes for example Ben Caspit, one of them, in the pages of the newspaper Ma’ariv.
Reactions inversed proportionate to reproaches targeting “Bibi” for several weeks in Israel. The opposition has been becoming more and more vehement in recent times with regard to its deadly war management in the Gaza Strip and its inability to bring back to Israel all the hostages captured by Hamas during the terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023. Thus, just hours before the launch of the strikes in Iran, its government coalition was about to fly.
Opposition reversal
Two ultra-Orthodox parties (shas and unified Judaism for the Torah), allied with Benyamin Netanyahu, had suggested that they could vote a bill to have the Israeli parliament to challenge the Prime Minister’s refusal to decide on the end or not of the exemptions from military conscription granted to pupils of religious schools. Thursday, June 12, this resolution filed by the opposition was finally rejected. Otherwise, new anticipated legislative elections have been summoned soon … and Benyamin Netanyahu’s troops were given losing by polls.
Once this danger of rejection has been discarded, the Israeli leader had the way to conduct his operation against Iran. And this time, almost all of his opponents were placed behind him. One of his main rivals, Benny Gantz, did not hesitate to support his action. “On the Iranian question, there is neither right nor left. There is good and evil. And we are right,” he said on CNN. The nationalist Naftali Bennett believes that with these bombings, “Israel saves the world from a nuclear Iran”. “Yes, this government must be overthrown, but not in the midst of an existential struggle,” said opposition chief Yaïr Lapid, quoted by AP.
In a fragmented political landscape, Benyamin Netanyahu therefore appears as the patriotic defender of Israel, highlighting the survival of the Hebrew State in the face of an Iranian axis (Iran but also Hamas, Hezbollah, rebels Houthi …) already weakened by the armed offensives carried out all over the air by Tsahal since the end of 2023. Suddenly suddenly moves to the XXL demonstrations against his power in Israel every week, just like his trial for corruption, now suspended …
No long -term guarantee for Netanyahu
But, beyond support for military action in itself, can the Israelis again perceive in Benyamin Netanyahu the embodiment of their political future? Another opinion study, commissioned by the Pro-Power Channel Channel 14, shows that 54 % of Israelis say they have confidence in their Prime Minister. But this figure camouflages a much more complex reality. First of all, the popularity of the Israeli leader could fluctuate according to the benefit really brought, or not, by his strikes on the Iranian rival.
In this regard, the recent warming of relations with American President Donald Trump, who had time put it aside, appears for him as a boon. Benyamin Netanyahu was surprised last April, when, in front of the journalists gathered during the oval office, the republican billionaire had taught him live the launch of negotiations with … Iran. An approach for which he had not been concerted. Donald Trump then took care to avoid a trip to Israel during his tour in the Gulf in May.
In addition to this diplomatic parameter, it will be necessary to monitor the evolution within the Israeli population of the appreciation of a new war, which risks getting bogged down. Since June 13, 24 people have already died in Israel due to the Iranian reprisal strikes. And this, while the country is already traumatized by October 7, 2023, then stuck in an endless war in Gaza.
“Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who rebuilds the cards itself, not the one who reacts, and there, he imposes his churchill side, moreover, it is his model”, evokes with AFP Denis Charbit, political scientist at the open university of Israel. “But depending on the results, and the duration [de la guerre]everything can change and Israelis will be able to turn to Bibi and ask him for accounts. “Long -term support for the action of the Israeli Prime Minister is therefore far from guaranteed.
However, his team is convinced of the political profits related to this new war for Benyamin Netanyahu. While swearing, of course, that his goal is above all military and geopolitical. “If we do something good for Israel, it’s good for us,” said a source close to the Prime Minister, quoted by CNN. “It’s good for you, electoral speaking, and with voters … He will take advantage of it in the future.” Before adding, under the cover of anonymity: “This time, we have a unit almost everywhere at Knesset, with the exception of the Arab parties, and we have a unity in the people.”