The European Commission signed a concession this Monday with the SpaceRISE consortium to develop and operate the IRIS2 low-orbit satellite constellation, a project valued at more than 10 billion euros. Can Europe catch up in this area compared to the United States and the American Space X? Is it at risk of being overtaken by China? Explanations from Pacôme Révillon, president of Novaspace, the main European consultancy firm in the space sector.
In the race for the Internet of space facing Elon MuskL’European Union officially launched its Iris2 secure communications satellite constellation project on Monday, signing a twelve-year concession with the SpaceRISE consortium. The EU’s flagship space project after the Galileo (satellite positioning) and Copernicus (climate monitoring) programs, Iris2 plans a network of 290 multi-orbital satellites, offering connection services by 2030.
RFI: What is IRIS2? Is this a European Starlink?
Pacôme Révillon (Novaspace): IRIS2 is a satellite constellation program in low orbit (the orbits closest to Earth). Its main goal is to provide secure high-speed communications to governments and potentially the wider public. There are some similarities with Starlink: being a high-throughput constellation in low orbit. However, there are also extremely important differences. First, regarding the number of satellites. We are talking about a few hundred satellites [290 pour l’instant, NDLR] for IRIS2, compared to thousands of satellites for Starlink. The other difference is that it is a secure constellation, with enhanced security levels serving governments and civil and military institutions. For example networks of embassies or the European Union, civil security operations in the context of natural disasters, as well as military operations, either in the external operations of the European Union or for the Member States themselves. same.
The program would be financed to the tune of 2.4 billion euros by the European Commission. What is the total budget and when?
At this stage, the overall envelope is 10 to 11 billion euros, shared between public and private funds. Funding by public authorities should be around 60%, with a very significant contribution from the private sector, amounting to 40% of the total budget. This is a very important financial commitment for the European Union, knowing that at European level around ten billion euros are invested each year in space activities. Which makes it one of the largest European space programs, the third pillar after Galileo, for navigation [le GPS européen]and after Copernicus, for observation of the earth and the environment.
Is this the first European constellation in low orbit?
It is not the very first in a sense, since the European industrialist [luxembourgeois, NDLR] SES has already deployed a constellation in the medium orbit. In addition, the French company Eutelsat, by merging with [le britannique] OneWeb, today has a low orbit constellation which has just started its commercial services. Precisely, SES and Eutelsat, with a third operator, the Spanish Hispasat, represent the heart of the SpaceRISE consortium which must operate IRIS2.
When will the constellation be sent into space and start operating?
By 2030. This is the deadline given under the contract. Given the complexity of the deployment of these constellations, it is quite common to observe two to three years of delay in the deployment of such projects, which may depend on the complexity of the satellites, their development, and the availability of launchers. [fusées, NDLR]etc.
Isn’t Europe (very) behind in the face of American competition from Starlink (the satellite constellation of SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk) for example, and Kuiper (from the Amazon group, owned by Jeff Bezos) ?
For various reasons, Europe has not been as much of a driving force [que les firmes américaines] in the field of small satellites, particularly in terms of investment in these systems. A very significant gap has been created. It is therefore unlikely, and in any case not planned for the moment, that a constellation comparable to that developed by the company SpaceX or that planned by the company Amazon will be deployed in Europe. That said, one of Europe’s objectives is both to deploy autonomous means [pour ne pas dépendre d’autres puissances, NDLR] and on the other hand to develop industrial skills and maintain its spatial capabilities.
Are European manufacturers able to compete with behemoths like SpaceX or Amazon?
On the one hand, a technological revolution is underway in the space sector: a digital revolution and new modes of production applied to space (with these small satellites and constellations for example). This presents a challenge for traditional businesses, as it calls into question the products that existed and the relevance of old markets. On the other hand, there is the question of demand [et de la commande publique, NDLR]. The United States has a global space budget of tens of billions of dollars, five to ten times more than Europe. Historically, in relation to the available budget, Europe has been particularly innovative, and has managed over time to remain at the best level. In this context, for European manufacturers, there are certainly challenges in research and development, capacity to innovate… But at the same time, a significant part of demand must come from governments and government investment. Consequently, if the gap is extremely significant, we cannot expect manufacturers to be able to deploy exactly the same solutions as their American counterparts. It is not guaranteed that Europe can maintain its level of competitiveness against the United States.
What about competition from China, which has already begun deploying a constellation of low-orbit satellites and has a second project underway in the same area?
China, through these programs, aims to have up to several tens of thousands of satellites, mega-constellations. One of its objectives is to have the first operational services within 2 to 3 years, barring possible delays. The country could therefore benefit from constellations before the end of the decade, potentially before IRIS2 (a period comparable to the European deployment of OneWeb, for example). However, these constellations would initially be more commercial in nature rather than very secure. At least three space powers – the United States, China and Europe – will therefore have high-speed constellations in low orbit through commercial companies (like Starlink).
Can China soon overtake Europe in this area?
About ten years ago, China was clearly behind Europe in terms of capacity. However, it has caught up and has the possibility of overtaking Europe in the coming years. Because China is moving forward very quickly, not just in constellations, but in space as a whole, with massive investments. Europe has not necessarily lost out to China, but risks doing so in the coming decade, from 2030 and beyond, if sufficient innovations and investments are not made.