The placement of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus does not currently seem to violate the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty, says UPI researcher Jyri Lavikainen.
17:17•Updated 17:18
Russia’s announcement about deploying its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is above all political in its effects, according to a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute (UPI) Jyri Lavikainen for STT.
According to him, with the help of nuclear weapons, Russia impales Belarus more firmly in its own sphere of interest.
– When there are permanently (Russian) nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, a situation arises where Russia can use the existence of nuclear weapons as a basis for going to secure them in Belarus, Lavikainen says.
– Russia now has something so valuable there that it can defend it with, for example, armed force.
This could happen, for example, in a situation where a new popular uprising or president would start in Belarus Alyaksandr Lukashenka or his successor would try to break away from Russia’s sphere of influence, Lavikainen estimates.
– Then Russia can say that now the security situation is such that Russian troops must be brought in, that is, in practice, the country will be conquered and occupied, he says.
– This works as a very good lever for Lukashenka as well. He understands his position as a leader completely dependent on Russia.
However, Lukashenka can also benefit from the strengthening of Russia’s position. In 2020–2021, Belarus saw large-scale demonstrations, where efforts were made to oust Lukashenka.
– Of course, the popular uprising has terribly scared Lukashenka. Yes, he can benefit from this, but the condition is that he gets to keep his power, Lavikainen says.
– The biggest loser here is the state and people of Belarus.
According to Lavikainen, based on current information, placing Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus would not violate the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
– Putin has compared this to, for example, NATO’s nuclear weapons sharing program, and in that respect he does not seem to be wrong, Lavikainen says.
Russia places its own nuclear weapons within the borders of Belarus, but keeps the weapons itself. The nuclear non-proliferation treaty would be violated if Russia gave nuclear weapons to Belarus.
– This doesn’t seem to be about that, and from Russia’s point of view, it shouldn’t be. It is not worth equipping a vassal state with nuclear weapons, says Lavikainen.
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