This is a sign that kyiv is considering a conflict that could last several months, even several years… It is in this context that Ukraine has started to build fortifications along the front line, a defensive posture supposed to retain the ‘enemy. This Monday, March 18, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke of “two thousand kilometers of work to strengthen existing fortifications and create new ones.”
Information that the British Ministry of Defense had mentioned the day before, reporting “dragon’s teeth”, anti-tank ditches, infantry trenches, minefields and fortified defensive positions. “The establishment of major defensive positions is indicative of an attritional conflict and means that any attempt to break through them is likely to be accompanied by heavy losses,” estimated the British ministry on X.
The failure of the counter-offensive
According to the newspaper The Kyiv Independentthe question of the construction of these fortifications emerged in November 2023. A time when the country was faced with internal political tensions, the threat of a drying up of Western military aid and the slow takeover of awareness that the summer counter-offensive had ended in a strategic failure, reports the newspaper. Radio Free Europe reports for its part that kyiv has allocated nearly $466 million for this massive defense project, while a Russian counter-offensive is expected in the spring, or even early summer.
These lines “prove that Ukraine realized that its offensive had failed. Their possible success depends on their quality” and in particular on the share of the budget diverted by corruption, endemic in Ukraine, the expert told AFP. independent Alexander Khramtchikhin. It should respond to the Russian “Surovikin Line” established in 2023 in eastern Ukraine, which includes three layers of defense in depth, intended both to exhaust enemy forces and make it more difficult to take control. of an area after a military breakthrough.
“World War I” style tactics, with the advantage of high technology brought by drones and other innovations, continue to dominate, the newspaper further notes The Kiyv Independent. In a video on board these fortification lines, Radio Free Europe shows their equipment, including electric generators, water heaters, but also washing machines and saunas. “These lines are divided into several sectors, with firing and defense positions, and further back places where soldiers can rest,” indicates the radio journalist.
New frontiers?
The use of this type of tactic is not new since the start of the conflict. “The Ukrainians have relied on fortifications since the summer of 2022,” underline analysts from the private British intelligence institute Janes. “The real difference today is that they will no longer concentrate only on the immediate proximity of the front line” but also solidify their rear positions to reduce “the probability that the adversary will exploits tactical successes. For Ukraine, however, this marks a radical change, because with the retrenchment comes the risk of permanently freezing the conflict and therefore losing sight of the objective of liberating the approximately 20% of the territory occupied by Russia, including the Donbass and Crimea.
Even if the front seems frozen, the war “finds itself less in an impasse than in a ‘recharge’ phase, the two belligerents trying to equip themselves with the means to achieve the decision by 2025-2026”, assures its part the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) in a report released this week.
Neither side is able to win the war today. But no one gave up. Seth Jones considers it “possible”, but not established, that these fortifications become “de facto borders”. In January, Prime Minister Denys Chmygal, referring to the establishment of a “large-scale three-level defense line”, assured that these fortifications should not mean the end of Ukrainian offensive actions.