“I would never have thought of having to say that on television,” said Friedrich Merz on Sunday, February 23, after the first results of the German legislative elections. The probable future Christian-democratic chancellor, whose party (CDU/CSU) came out with 28.52 % of the votes, seriously displayed its awareness of the rocking of the world. The CAP that he deduces for Germany is in rupture with the transatlantic relationship that has founded the identity of the country since 1945. By its major geopolitical implications, this event exceeds the spectacular breakthrough of the AFD Farm Party (20.8 %), although he has doubled his 2021 score and became the first opposition party to the Bundestag.
On the Ard channel, Friedrich Merz mentioned the need for Europeans to develop an autonomous defense, emancipated from an Atlantic alliance broken by Donald Trump and by the United States “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe”. Two days earlier, he was even more disruptive. On the ZDF television channel on February 21, he said he wanted to “discuss with the British and the French to find out if their nuclear protection could also extend to us (Germany).” He stressed that Germany had never answered this question “that the French government has raised several times to the German government”. We understood: with him, Germany will answer.
“Cut the cord” with Washington
For Germany and for Europe, it is a revolution. Or rather a beginning of revolution, as the German defense, still embryonic, is dependent (like the whole of Europe) of American production – around 55 % of the imports of weapons from Germany come from the United States, Including the Patriot missile strategies and F-35 aircraft. But this Merz position is crucial in itself, especially since it echoes those of the Prime Minister of Poland, a country also viscerally attached to American security. Donald Tusk thus invited Europeans to arm and cut the umbilical cord with Washington: “Do not ask America what it can do for our safety. Ask yourself what we can do for our own safety . “
Examine them with a magnifying glass or by far on the world map, the German legislative elections of 2025 are historic. A month after Donald Trump’s inauguration at the White House, the day before the fatal day when the three years of the Russian invasion in Ukraine are commemorated and when the American president replayed the 1938 Munich agreements with Vladimir Putin By giving him a country that does not belong to him, the scheduled arrival of Friedrich Merz at the head of the Chancellery broke with the wait -and -see paralyzing from its social democratic predecessor (SPD), Olaf Scholz. Now on the same line as the majority of its European counterparts, notably from the North and the East, and while the French and British leaders, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, activate together to guarantee the security of Ukraine and From the continent, Merz ensures the assistance of the first European economic power. The worst is no longer certain.
He must still form the coalition that will eliminate him at the head of the Chancellery and the most likely hypothesis is that of a new large CDU-SPD coalition. The two parties have differences on defense issues. The SPD is traditionally pacifist, more open to relations with Russia, backwards on nuclear. The severity of the context in the face of the new Russian-American alliance must lead them to agree.
The idea of a convergence of French and British nuclear forces is in secret discussion for a long time between London and Paris. Emmanuel Macron has already stressed that “the vital interests of France include a European dimension”. The autonomy of the United Kingdom in matters of nuclear deterrence is limited compared to the United States, but cooperation reinforced with France are possible and impose themselves. Europeans of the European Union, and obviously of the United Kingdom, must become able to defend themselves without depending exclusively from the United States.
The Friedrich Merz revolution marks a historic stage for European strategic autonomy.