Winter Elections: The Good, The Bad and the (Mostly) Ugly

First Doug Ford’s Decision to Plunge Ontario Into an Election is Sending Voters to the Polls for the First Cold-Weather Provincial Election in More Than Four Decades. Here’s What You Need To Know About the Rare Dead-Of-Winter Voting AS Candidates Hit The Icy Campaign Trail.

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The History of Winter Votes

Ontario hasn’t had a provincial election Campaign During the Winter in more than 40 years. First Bill Davis, Seeking A Majority Mandate After A Minority Win in the 1977 Election, Called an Election for March 19, 1981, That Returned His Progressive Conservative Government to A Majority.

Ontario Had Three Other Cold-Weather General Elections in the 20th Century, in December 1911, December 1926 and November 1951.

As for Federal Elections, The Most recent Cold-Weather General Election was Jan. 23, 2006, When Stephen Harper’s Conservative Clinched A Minority Mandate.

Politicians Hate them

CAMPAUGNS UNFOLD on Two Fronts. Individual candidates pound the pavement in their ridings, knocking on doors with their volunteers to identify supporters, while their party leaders make their way to photo ops and meet-And-greets around the province.

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Harsh Weather CAN THrow A WRENCH Into Both, Limiting Outdoor Canvassing Time for Local Candidates Or Causing Travel Delays for Leaders.

Voters are cold on them

FEBRUARY WEATHER IS A WILD CARD IN THE ELECTION, Waterloo University Political Scientist Peter Woolstencroft Said.

It may affect voting turnout across the province, or only in specific are and among specific populations, he said.

“I WOULD THINK A BIG STORM WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO LOWER THE VOT IN RURAL Areas, AND BE LESS PROBLEMATIC IN TORONTO,” He Said.

“Older people have trouble getting out in the cold. Now, if we have a storm and the sidewalks aren’t clear, some people will be fearful about getting out. ”

Even A Small Dose of Winter Weather on Election Day Could Keep Voters Annoyed About the Snap Election Going Out to Polling Stations, Woolstencroft Said.

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Vote Turnout on Ice?

Though wintery weather can keep voters at home, it’s not the primary factor in voting turnout, Said Jon Pammett, A Professor at Ottawa’s Carleton University who Specializes in Democratic Participation.

“Winter Elections, Overall, Provide Somewhat Lower Turnnets Than Do Other Seasons,” He Said, Adding the Height of the Summer Break is the Season with the Lowest Turnout.

“But the Circumstances of the specific election are at least as important as the weather.”

The issues at play in an election, or the potential for a change in government, can ratchet up voter turnout even in the winter, pammett said. He expects Advanced Polls to be Well -used This Provincial Election, The Continuation of A Trend That’s Emerged During Previous Election Cycles.

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But this if voting turnout takes a hit on Feb. 27 – The 2022 Ontario General Election Had Record Low Turnout at 43 per hundred – it may not harm ford’s prospects.

“He leads an incumbent Government in Uncertain Times with a ReasonABly Favourable Popularity Rating,” Pammett Said.

“Even if turnout is low, he is not likely to suffer, as there Seems to be Little to Galvanize An Influx Into the Electorate of Voters Opposed to Him.”

Other from

A Winter Election Makes Lawn Signs and Public Property Signs, Which Are Often Attached to Stakes Drive Into the Ground, A Headache.

On Local Campaigns, where door-knocking is the name of the game, miserable weather risks burning out volunteers, or discouraging some helpers from coming out altether.

The Election also is coming at a time when many retired canadians are out of the country, woolstencroft said. It’s estimated a million canadians a year Head to Southern Us States Each Winter.

“A Lot of People Are Away. How Much of an effort are they going to make to vote? ” He asked.

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