A new episode of bad weather sets in from this Wednesday morning. With the passage of Storm Kirk, winds will strengthen and sustained rain could cause flooding.
The weather is far from good this week. After the Cévennes episode which affected the southern half of France at the start of the week, a storm will sweep across French lands from this Wednesday, October 9. Hurricane Kirk, which is developing in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, downgraded to category 1/5, continues to weaken to become an extratropical storm, and it is this storm Kirk which will blow over France from west to east between Wednesday and Thursday according to the weather forecast.
Storm Kirk is expected to hit the Bay of Biscay from this Wednesday and affect a large northwest quarter before gradually sliding northeast. The depression should follow a diagonal axis going from Vendée, in the Pays de la Loire, to Lorraine, in the Grand Est. Météo-France has placed 30 departments on orange rain-flood vigilance for the day of Wednesday, from 6 a.m. In parallel with these departments which are in the axis affected by the Kirk depression, the Pyrénées-Atlantiques and the Hautes-Pyrénées have also been placed on orange vigilance for wind, in the same way as the Rhône and the Loire.
The trajectory of Storm Kirk was refined on Tuesday, although it can still evolve and become clearer. Other uncertainties still hover over the intensity of the phenomenon. The Windy app models weather data and allows you to visualize Storm Kirk and its progress. Here the gusts of winds and their evolution are visible. It is possible to observe single winds and wind accumulation by choosing the appropriate filter with the button at the top right of the image.
Gusts of more than 150km/h expected in the mountains
Storm Kirk will bring strong winds. Gusts could reach 100 to 110 km/h in the valleys and plains without significant weakening expected along the way between the western and eastern regions. Stormy winds will also affect the Pyrenees with more powerful gusts ranging from 120 to 150 km/h on the cretes. “With the passage of the Kirk depression, the wind will shift suddenly to the west at the end of the day with gusts still close to 100 km/h,” specifies Météo France in its bulletin of Wednesday October 9. On the Loire and the Rhône, we expect 100 to 110 km/h temporarily in the Gier valley and in the south and east of Lyon.
The winds generated by Storm Kirk should be the main danger, they can cause trees or objects to fall. If you are vigilant, it is recommended to protect your home and secure or bring in any exterior objects that could be taken away. It is also preferable to limit your travel and stay informed of the situation via the authorities. The risks are even greater when heavy rains are combined with violent winds.
Heavy rains and risk of flooding
In addition to stormy winds, Depression Kirk is expected to bring heavy rain to a large northwest part of the country. “Continuous and sustained rain will affect the regions extending from Vendée and Pays de Loire to the Paris region, the south of Picardy and Champagne-Ardennes,” forecasts Météo France. The Weather Channel announces heavier rains in Poitou-Charentes from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m., then in the Center and the Paris basin rather from 6 p.m. to 1 a.m., then from 10 p.m. to 3 a.m. Thursday for the northern quarter. East. “Floods are likely as well as a general increase in the watercourses of these catchment basins (Seine upstream in particular),” specifies La Chaîne Météo.
“The accumulations over the whole day will be very significant, they could reach 50 to 70 mm in the Paris basin and Champagne-Ardennes and 60 to 80 mm, or even locally 90 mm heading towards the Pays de Loire and Vendée “, specifies Météo France. Quantities that usually fall within a month. This precipitation will occur “in a context of already very wet soils and could therefore cause flooding”, adds the meteorological agency.
08:11 – Where will it rain the most?
“Continuous and sustained rain will affect the regions extending from Vendée and Pays de Loire to the Paris region, the south of Picardy and Champagne-Ardennes,” warns Météo France this Wednesday morning. Accumulations could reach 50 to 70mm in the Paris basin and up to 80mm in Champagne-Ardennes, “or even locally 90mm heading towards the Pays de Loire and Vendée”. Quantities that fall over a month. A phenomenon that occurs in a context of already very humid soils, which could cause flooding.
08:00 – 30 departments on orange alert
For this Wednesday in October 2024, Météo France places 30 departments on orange alert alert. We note the transition to orange “rain-flood” vigilance in Oise, Aisne and Mayenne, while the expected rainfall totals are revised upwards in Ile-de-France. The departments of Loire and Rhône also switch to orange for “winds”. Concerning the general situation, the Kirk depression will circulate well over France during this Wednesday. “A rainy event (is) to be monitored in particular in the Pays de Loire, its duration and intensity could lead to a reassessment of the level of vigilance,” specifies Météo France.
08/10/24 – 22:37 – When will the rain stop falling?
From Loire-Atlantique to the Ardennes, via Île-de-France, heavy rain associated with the Kirk depression will fall on Wednesday. But until when? According to Météo-France forecaster François Jobard, echoed by BFMTV, the rain should stop “on the Vendée side” from “Wednesday evening”. “But the water will not drain away on its own,” he explains, while the departments are also placed on orange alert for flooding. And the specialist adds: “In Île-de-France it will stop at midnight. Then, in Champagne and Lorraine, it will stop almost until 6 a.m. on Thursday.”
08/10/24 – 8:22 p.m. – Storm Kirk in Brittany: what is expected
As Storm Kirk arrives in France, the four departments of Brittany, namely Côtes-d’Armor, Finistère, Ille-et-Vilaine and Morbihan have been placed on yellow alert for thunderstorms by Météo- France Tuesday evening. Vigilance put in place at midday and which should be lifted at 9 p.m. For the day of Wednesday, only two departments, Morbihan and Ille-et-Vilaine, will be placed on yellow alert, this time for rain-flooding, from midnight.