Turkey’s incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan looks headed for victory in the country’s second round of elections on Sunday. A win that could facilitate Swedish NATO membership.
– Seen strictly from a Swedish NATO perspective, it could go more smoothly with Erdoğan in power, says Aras Lindh, analyst, Foreign Policy Institute.
Almost two weeks ago, the Turkish population went to the polls – in what was predicted to be a close race between incumbent President Recep Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
And it was by small margins that Erdogan’s AKP won the most votes, so few that a second round of elections will be held this Sunday. Despite opposition leader Kilicdaroglu declaring before the election that he wants to approve Swedish NATO membership – a win for Erdogan may be the best option for Sweden’s chances of being approved.
– Since the Swedish NATO issue has to be ratified in the Turkish parliament, where the AKP’s alliance got a majority, that alliance will have to approve it, says Aras Lindh, analyst, Foreign Policy Institute.
Sweden a pawn in Turkey’s political game
The fact that the AKP has taken hold of the country’s parliament can pave the way for a toothless presidential term if the opposition wins – where the risk is that the parliament with Erdogan at the head worked hard to block the president’s policies. Then Sweden’s chances of getting into NATO would get worse and worse.
– Should the opposition win this, which seems unlikely, there is a risk that the Swedish NATO issue will become a pawn in a game where the parliament can try to block the president’s power, says Aras Lindh.
According to Lindh, a win for Erdogan is therefore preferable from a Swedish perspective – despite the president’s apparent reluctance to approve Sweden’s NATO application.
– Seen strictly from a Swedish NATO perspective, it could actually go a little more smoothly with Erdoğan in power, he says.