ISTANBUL On the pedestrian street of the Beşiktaş neighborhood near the center of Istanbul, you can quickly see that the upcoming elections are dividing the nation.
– If a chair were nominated as a counter-candidate to the current government, people would be ready to vote for the chair. We cannot survive in the current economic situation, says Berna Hanbaywho is also disappointed with the ineffectiveness of the opposition.
He talks about the collapse of his family’s income level and says that it takes time to get the country on the right track.
– We have to hope for change, at least for the sake of the children, Hanbay thinks.
The next interviewee is immediately praised by the president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
– Maybe we have economic troubles right now, but the president has brought us a sense of security. It is important to be safe from foreign forces, he says Özlem Yıldız.
The “insidious attempts” of foreign forces to destroy Turkey have been part of the message of those in power even before President Erdoğan came to power.
“Turkey in between autocracy and democracy”
The parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey are expected to be held on May 14.
The presidential elections are important for the direction of the country. The constitution approved in 2017 puts power in the hands of the president
Political researcher, assistant professor Berk Esen from Sabancı University characterizes the Turkish system as an intermediate state between autocracy and democracy.
– Elections are held here, opposition parties can participate and, at least on paper, they have a chance to win. But the administration is autocratic, says Esen.
According to him, the state bureaucracy has been harnessed to support those in power, i.e. President Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party. At the same time, independent media, universities and non-governmental organizations are under pressure.
Most of the media has passed under the control of the president’s inner circle. So is the legal system lost your independence (you move to another service).
The opposition has a chance to win
In the 2019 local elections, the largest opposition group, the Republican People’s Party CHP, took over several large cities, including Istanbul and Ankara.
The result was a clear blow to President Erdoğan, who had campaigned fiercely on his presidential prestige.
There are several opposition parties and they are now trying to gather their strength. The economic crisis and the inflation that sometimes rose to more than 80 percent have angered many. The opposition could win the May elections, says Berk Esen
– However, the opposition faces a strong autocratic regime, which is supported by the state’s bureaucracy and legal system.
– If you were to use football terms, the government can bring 11 players on the field, but the opposition only six. And the judge is completely on the government’s side, says assistant professor Berk Esen.
The justice system works for the president
The prison sentence of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, is one example of the use of the legal system against the opposition.
Arguing with the Turkish Interior Minister about the result of the 2019 local elections, İmamoğlu characterized those who are trying to cancel the election results as fools.
The court found that the mayor insulted the honor of the members of the election authority and sentenced him to two years and seven months in prison.
The sentence includes a ban on standing for election. The verdict has been appealed.
According to Erdoğan’s opponents, the goal of the trial was to ensure that İmamoğlu could not run for president.
Since December, the mayor’s supporters have demonstrated every night in front of the Istanbul City Hall.
– We are defending the mayor’s honor, because the goal is to tarnish his reputation, says Esra Onur Bakirdöken from the non-governmental organization of voluntary election observers.
Bakırdöken thinks that the sentence İmamoğlu received is illegal. Volunteer election observers are now preparing for the May elections.
– We focus on the security of election apartments and ballot boxes. We are trying to ensure that the elections are fair and without fraud, says Esra Onur Bakırdöken.
“Turkey is not Belarus”
Few expect massive election fraud, but researcher Berk Esen says that “fine-tuning” of the result could occur if Erdoğan comes close to winning the election, but not quite there.
– If the opposition wins by more than one percentage point, Erdoğan cannot cling to power by illegal means, even if the change of power becomes difficult. Turkey is not Belarus or Venezuela, says Berk Esen.
That is, the sitting president has to work for his re-election. Recently, Erdoğan has talked about various support packages for farmers and the poor, among others.
The large pension package allows women who have worked for 20 years to retire, for men the working life requirement is 25 years. Turkey is getting a lot of cheerful pensioners, who are expected to thank the president at the ballot box.
The government-supporting media constantly trumpets the opposition’s unreliability, fragmentation and terrorist connections. Delaying Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership is also part of the attempts to create an image of a great leader who determines what happens in the world.
“Everyone who criticizes the administration takes a risk”
Erdoğan has now been in power for 20 years, first as prime minister and then as president. The next season could lead to even more difficult conditions for those who do not support him.
– There could be a rising wave of autocracy ahead. There are still university people and journalists here who are critical. They may be dealt with even more harshly.
Berk Esen’s workplace, the private Sabancı University is one of the few universities independent of the government. It probably protects him up to a point.
– Everyone who criticizes the administration takes the risk of, for example, being the subject of an investigation. Many of my colleagues have lost their jobs and some have left the country.
– Academic freedom has largely been abolished. But these things need to be talked about now, because after the election it might be too late.
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