Will Trump bring home 30,000 American soldiers?

Vilseck, in northern Bavaria, is in many ways a typical German small town: a main street with a few shops, a restaurant serving mostly pork dishes, a tattoo artist, a football team and beautiful turn-of-the-century buildings.

But outside the city hall, a large American flag also flies, and in the background there is the constant rumble of military exercises – artillery fire and volleys from machine guns. North of Vilseck is the largest American military training site in Europe, with around 13,000 American soldiers.

– The American military base and training ground are part of our city, says Vilseck’s mayor Hans-Martin Schertl when I meet him in his office.

The military base contributes around 700 million euros annually to the local economy, so it is easy to understand why he – and the rest of the population – can live with the constant sound of explosions.

Uncertain future under Trump

Last time Trump was president, he decided to heavily draw down troops in Germany, and most would leave northern Bavaria. The decision was never implemented before he lost the election.

With Trump on the way back, German politicians seem to have the strategy of hoping he has changed his mind. Germany is now reaching NATO’s goal of two percent of GDP for defense, they constantly repeat with flickering eyes. Trump must realize that the state of the world makes it wise to keep troops in Europe, they add nervously. A final hope is that generals in the Pentagon will refuse to move the troops.

One can understand the wishful thinking – with American troops on German soil there is a security that the country’s – still underfunded – Bundeswehr cannot provide.

“Never underestimate the power of denial,” says Ricky Fitts to Lester Burnham in the movie American Beauty. He is referring to his father, who does not realize that his money comes from drug sales.

The same can be said for Germany with less than two months to go until the next round with Trump.

t4-general