Less than two weeks before the first round of the legislative elections, scheduled for Sunday June 30, the presidential party seems condemned to play second fiddle.
This was the big surprise of the evening of the European elections of June 9, 2024. A few minutes after the announcement of the results, marked in France by the large victory of the National Rally, Emmanuel Macron proclaimed the dissolution of the National Assembly, the sixth in the history of the Fifth Republic. The decision of the president, whose second term runs until 2027, surprised many people, including in his own camp, that of Renaissance. If the Need for Europe list came in second position, with 14.6% of the votes, it was crushed by the RN, with 31.3%.
Has the shock desired by Emmanuel Macron borne fruit? No, if we are to believe the latest polls on the early legislative elections which will take place on June 30 (1er round) and July 7 (2nd round). While the President of the Republic was undoubtedly hoping for a surge in his electorate and to recover votes from the left and the right to strengthen the center, he seems to have precipitated the fall of the presidential majority, which is now relative.
Renaissance collects between 18 and 19% of voting intentions in the polls of voting intentions in these legislative elections, and seems promised, without much momentum, to play the role of arbiter against the National Rally and the Popular Front, which seems to be able to finish first in a majority of constituencies on the evening of the first round.
In June 2022, during the last legislative elections, held in the wake of the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, the presidential party – Together! – had collected more than 38% of the votes. In the space of two years, its electorate would therefore have been reduced by half if we stick to recent estimates. With 245 seats in the National Assembly before Emmanuel Macron’s poker move attempted on June 9, Renaissance would obtain according to the latest forecasts around a hundred seats in the future hemicycle.
With possibly three times fewer deputies than under the Attal government, which will only have lasted six months if it were to be dismissed after the second round at the beginning of July, the presidential party could no longer have the slightest possibility of forming a government.
The presidential party, founded in 2016 under the name En Marche, nevertheless retains a small hope of collecting the votes of those who, on the left as well as on the right, do not recognize themselves in the respective programs of the Popular Front and the National Rally. But looking at the figures – Renaissance is quite far from the other two political blocs – it seems difficult to imagine that it will be able to make up all of its delay.
This is especially true since in the constituencies where Renaissance will qualify for the second round – which means obtaining at least 12.5% of those registered – there is the risk of finding itself in a triangular situation with both the RN and the Popular Front. will be big. In this case, and without withdrawal, it is likely that the far right will be favored if it finished in the lead on June 30.