Chief of Staff of the Swedish Defense Forces Michael Claesson considers it possible that Russia will next send migrants to Sweden from Kaliningrad.
– Russia could bring people to Kaliningrad and send them by boat to the Baltic Sea, Claesson commented to the Swedish Broadcasting Company of SVT by.
Russian researcher Jussi Lassila The foreign policy institute considers the scenario presented by Claesson an unlikely “horror scenario”.
According to him, it would require a completely new kind of activity from Russia, which has not been seen even on the eastern border.
– Russia should practically fly people to Kaliningrad. It would be very difficult for it to work unnoticed. Russia would immediately reveal how ruthlessly it instrumentalizes people, says Lassila.
So far, Russia has denied the Finnish government’s statements, according to which Russia’s activities on the Finnish border in November were organized.
Russia claims that its border authorities have not allowed people without documents to enter the border zone.
Lassila considers Russia’s claim hypocritical because, for example, Russians are not allowed into the border zone without a compelling reason.
However, the expert points out that the Russian border authorities operate very discreetly on the border with Finland, when hundreds of people crossing the border arrived in the border zone in a short period of time.
In Kaliningrad, such a subtle operation would not be successful due to the geographical location of the region.
Sweden: Russia can use Kaliningrad in its hybrid operation
Escorting potential border crossers from Kaliningrad to Sweden would be special in Lassila’s opinion, because it is easy to travel from Kaliningrad to EU countries Poland and Lithuania.
In addition, Russia should organize smugglers and boats to the Baltic Sea to transfer people from Kaliningrad to Sweden.
– If the purpose of Russia’s hybrid operation is to put pressure on EU countries, it could just as well send migrants to the borders of the Baltic countries or to Norway.
Kaliningrad is important for Russia militarily, especially since NATO has increased its presence in the Baltic Sea this autumn. Kaliningrad’s almost 150 km long coast is almost entirely used by the Russian army.
So why does Sweden believe that Russia would use Kaliningrad in its hybrid operation?
Lassila estimates that Sweden may fear for its NATO membership, which is in the final stages. According to the rules of the military alliance, a country at war cannot join NATO.
– In Sweden, there is perhaps a fear that Russia could create a state of disturbance in security policy. At least it would be in Russia’s interests, Lassila states.
The timetable for Sweden’s NATO membership is still unclear.
On Wednesday, the Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström said that Turkey anticipates that Sweden’s NATO membership will take place within two weeks.
If Russia tried to influence Sweden’s NATO process, it would probably choose simpler means than flying people to Kaliningrad.
According to Lassila, such an “easy way” could be causing provocation in the Baltic Sea.
The Swedish Ministry of Defense published at the beginning of November the reportin which it listed likely security threats.
Cyber attacks, influence campaigns and sabotage of underwater infrastructure are mentioned as security threats in the report.
It can also be about Sweden’s internal politics
The Ministry of Defense document states that the risk of a military attack against Sweden will decrease when Sweden joins NATO, but that joining the military alliance will increase the risk of hybrid operations in Sweden.
The Swedish armed forces have prepared for a hybrid operation in the Baltic Sea, Claesson said according to SVT on Thursday.
According to Lassila, the Swedish armed forces are probably aware of the consequences of the long-term weakening of defense capabilities for the country’s army.
Sweden abolished universal conscription in 2010, but partially reinstated it seven years later. Since 2017, selective conscription has been in use in Sweden. In 2022, the then Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson announced that Sweden is starting to strengthen its army.
– If Russia attacked now, Sweden would not survive for more than a week.
– From the speeches of the representative of the Defense Forces, it can be interpreted that the Defense Forces wants to use a horror scenario to remind us of the importance of the resources given to the armed forces, says Lassila.
Lassila considers it likely that the timing of Claesson’s exit was considered. Claesson brought up the Kaliningrad threat after Finland announced the closure of its borders.
You can discuss the topic until 23:00 on 2.12.