David Guiraud is a candidate for re-election in the legislative elections in the North. What result can the outgoing MP hope for?
Since his election in the 8th district of the North in 2022, David Guiraud has made himself known, particularly to his opponents. The 31-year-old outgoing deputy, who sat with La France insoumise in the National Assembly, has been at the heart of several controversies since the October 7 attack by Hamas in Israel and the bombings that followed in Gaza. David Guiraud is also the subject of a complaint from the Jewish Observatory of France for “apology of terrorism and provocation of discrimination, hatred or violence”, facts which he contests. Does he have a good chance of being re-elected in the 2024 legislative elections?
The outgoing deputy had in any case won without difficulty in 2022 in the 8th constituency of the North, which includes the city of Roubaix. Arriving in the lead in the first round, with more than 15 points ahead of his Macronist competitor, David Guiraud won the second round with almost 60% of the votes. Furthermore, the results of the European elections in the constituency confirmed the good anchoring of La France insoumise: Manon Aubry’s list had the best score, collecting 31.54% of the votes, ahead of the National Rally, which signed a still an honorable score of 30.39%.
Neither LR nor Reconquest in the constituency
David Guiraud is running in these 2024 legislative elections under the banner of the New Popular Front, which brings together the main left-wing parties. However, if we add up the results of these parties in the European elections, they obtained 45% of the votes cast during the European elections in the Roubaix constituency. Note, however, that neither LR nor Reconquête are presenting a candidate for the legislative elections in this constituency, which could favor the RN candidate Ethan Leys, or even that of the presidential majority, Tarik Mekki. Maël Camerlynck is for his part invested by Debout la France, while Françoise Delbarre will represent Lutte Ouvrière.
What about polls? At the country level, the National Rally is given the lead in voting intentions in the 2024 legislative elections: according to the Ifop barometer of June 17 for the JDD, 33% of those questioned plan to vote for Jordan Bardella’s party in the first round, against 28% for the New Popular Front, which takes second place. In the second round, the projections for the number of seats in the National Assembly are tight: according to the Cluster17 survey of June 14, the RN would obtain between 195 and 245 deputies, while the New Popular Front would have between 190 and 235.