Less than two weeks before the European elections, polls predict a victory for the conservative camp, with a breakthrough for populist and far-right lists in many countries of the European Union. If it materializes, this result risks undermining the Green Deal, the ambitious environmental and climate policy of the 27, to the great dismay of environmental defenders who are worried about the setbacks already observed in recent weeks.
In Germany, polls predict that the far right will win eight seats in the European Parliament, while the environmentalists will lose nine. Same trend in France where the far right would this time take 14 seats. Opposite, the environmentalists would lose six MEPs. In Spainthe entire right (traditional and extreme) would gain 14 seats. These trends are found in a majority of European states: the conservatives promise to be the big winners of the vote which will take place from June 6 to 9. During the last election in 2019, environmentalists made a breakthrough.
Faced with this possible result, the European Green Deal, which today constitutes one of the most ambitious environmental policies in the world, has a lot to lose. Climate, energy, industries, transport, biodiversity or agriculture…all sectors have been affected by this program over the past five years and “ the European far right has always been against this Green Deal agenda. She has always voted against the texts and even those which were the most consensual », explains Nicolas Berghmans, of the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI).
In 2021 for example, while the Climate law, which provides for a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 in the EU and carbon neutrality in 2050, “ was voted for by the right, center and left in the European Parliament, the far right voted against », continues the expert.
The Green Deal, a scapegoat
A populist and electoralist positioning, according to Alberto Vela of the European Environmental Bureau (EBB) which brings together 180 environmental associations on the continent. “ The far right has always operated with a narrative that operates with scapegoats. There was a time when it was immigration. The day before yesterday it was the bureaucrats in Brussels and today it is the Green Deal. These are different masks for the same strategy “, he believes.
An analysis shared by Nicolas Berghmans, who notes that in the narrative from the extreme right, concerns related to security or purchasing power are associated with the ecological transition undertaken within the EU. “ These parties use the argument to say that the Green Deal is one of the causes of these security and purchasing power risks. However, ultimately, this is not supported by the facts or a detailed analysis of the situation. »
He cites the example of the invasion in Ukraine and European dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, imported massively before the start of the war. “ Europe has a clear and very strong energy security advantage in developing renewable energies to replace CO2-emitting energies. So Europe has every interest in accelerating the energy transition “, he says. However, the far right opposes this policy.
The new thing is that part of the traditional right, gathered within the EPP group (European People’s Party) in the European Parliamentjoined the reluctance of the extreme right, especially “ on questions of biodiversity and those linked to the agricultural crisis, but less on questions linked to climate, energy and transport. Until now anyway », observes Nicolas Berghmans. An evolution that has been seen “ as the discussions progress » within the hemicycle.
“ This is not the cause of the problems »
In France, “ the Republicans, who are part of the EPP, are following the discourse of the extreme right, a very populist discourse, for electoral reasons », Adds Anne Bringault, director of programs at the Climate Action Network. “ They blame the Green Deal for all the ills experienced by all trades, even though it is not the cause of the problems. », she adds. This political strategy is also that of part of the Renew group in the European Parliament, a group to which Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party belongs. “ Even the parliamentarians of the French presidential majority have backed down » on several measures on agriculture, notes Anne Bringault.
Indeed, farmers demonstrated in several countries of the European Union a few months ago, to protest against their financial difficulties. The response of the 27 was to step back on several environmental measures which limited the impact of intensive agriculture on the environment and the climate, “ while the question of environmental protection is not the primary concern of farmers! », protests the coordinator of French climate defense NGOs. “ They are themselves experiencing climate change and their concern is their income. »
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Industrial lobbies in force
Conservative political parties are not the only ones to attack the Green Deal. The powerful agro-industry lobbies, who advocate for the development of intensive agriculture, harmful to the environment but lucrative for large farms and the chemical industries that produce fertilizers and pesticides, have joined the peasants’ fight. Europeans.
At this moment, ” agribusiness lobbies used the argument of the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine to their advantage to tell the European Commission that now was not the time to make reforms, under penalty of loss of economic competitiveness and that the status quo was preferable », relates Alberto Vela of the European Environmental Bureau (EBB). An ultimatum and a false dilemma » according to him, while the European Union has chosen large agro-industrial companies in the face of environmental objectives.
Environmental activists believe, on the contrary, that European authorities should support a transition towards agroecology, this set of sustainable and equally productive techniques, but they do not have the same influence in Brussels. In an interview at WorldFaustine Bas-Defossez, also from the EBB, explains that “ the means of industrial lobbies are colossal » facing NGOs and “ on social networks, certain elected officials repeated the arguments exactly » lobbies.
China and the United States in ambush
As the elections approach, a headwind against ecological interests is sweeping the European Union, blown by conservative populist political parties and certain lobbies, whether for electoral reasons or for short-term economic interests.
But ” if Europe takes a break or if it shows a certain setback in its environmental policy during the next mandate, it risks being quickly caught up by China which is very rapidly deploying green technologies and which aims to come to the factory world of ecological transition, or by the United States which is investing very massively in these green technologies with its “Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)” “, warns Neil Makaroff, director of the energy transition think tank Strategic Perspectives. A few days before the elections, the Green Deal is therefore at a crossroads.
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