will the electricity network resist Russian strikes this winter? – The Express

“Due to the shutdown of these thermal units, as well as a drop in the outside temperature (related to the weather and which leads to an increase in consumption, Editor’s note), a temporary electricity shortage is reported in the network “, he added. At the beginning of October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Moscow would strive this winter to “destroy” his country’s electricity system.

On Facebook, the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Chmygal, particularly advised Ukrainians not to plug in appliances that consume a lot of energy at the same time, to postpone machine washing until nighttime and to reduce the brightness of business signs. “All of this could help us avoid introducing energy cuts,” he said. On November 23, the operator Ukrenergo had already reported a “difficult” situation on the Ukrainian electricity network, damaged by Russian bombings last year. The manager then announced that he had to resort to “emergency assistance” from three neighboring countries: Romania, Slovakia and Poland.

An appeal which comes at a time when Western aid to kyiv – which notably enabled it to withstand Russian bombings against its energy system in 2022 – is threatened by political dissension. An envelope of 50 billion euros planned to consolidate European support for Ukraine is blocked by the reluctance of certain member states, including Viktor Orban’s Hungary, just like new American aid, slowed down in Congress by Republican elected officials.

At the same time, a French report from the NGO Électriciens sans frontières and the think tank URD, published at the beginning of December, indicates that the coming months could be harsh for the Ukrainian population, in particular because the Ukrainian electricity sector is still suffering from the strikes suffered in winter. last. According to the text, Ukraine estimated, at the end of summer 2023, “that more than 800 kamikaze missiles and drones had hit energy installations and that 60% of the country’s energy infrastructure had been damaged”.

An assessment carried out by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) estimated the cost of this damage at $10 billion and the number of people with no or limited access to energy at 12 million. Although the country has nevertheless made efforts to repair the damage caused, to acquire more air defenses to protect its infrastructure against future attacks and to stock up on energy resources, certain structures remain beyond repair, deplores Kostyantin Krysnytskyi, of the NGO Ekodia, Kyiv Independent.

Indeed, transformers, parts necessary for repairing installations, are difficult to obtain, even from allies, explains Maciej Zaniewicz, an energy specialist, still at kyiv Independent. He added: “It takes about a year to produce a transformer, and the Russians can destroy a lot of them over the winter.” The scale of this damage also means that some facilities are being left behind and that Ukraine will have less excess capacity to cover peak demand if the winter becomes very cold, according to Maciej Zaniewicz.

In addition to the destruction, another element complicates the situation: by losing part of its territory following the annexation referendums, Ukraine no longer has access to some of its power plants and dams, which structurally affects its capacity. to produce electricity. According to the French report, the country has lost 44% of its nuclear electricity resources and 76% of its thermal production capacity. A “huge” loss.

To take over, the Ukrainians decided to anticipate by stocking up on generators since last winter. The country imported around 670,000 in 2022, according to an Energy Charter report. Some thermal power plants were also rebuilt outside the battlefields, in more remote locations, in pine forests or along roadsides as explained in Guardian Danyliuk, engineer at DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private electricity company. But it remains to be seen whether these precautions will make it possible to avoid breakdowns with the stabilization of the front and while Vladimir Putin seems more determined than ever to win this “special operation” in 2024.