Tensions have risen in recent months around Ukraine, which Westerners believe is under threat of a Russian invasion. Kiev and Moscow have been at loggerheads since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, followed by a war in eastern Ukraine with pro-Russian separatists (more than 13,000 dead) including the Kremlin is considered, despite his denials, as the military godfather.
Map of eastern Ukraine locating the latest fighting and areas where Russian soldiers are believed to be.
abm/dmk K.Tian/O.Sorrel AFP
On November 10, 2021, Washington demanded explanations from Russia on “unusual” troop movements on the Ukrainian border. In April, Moscow had already massed about 100,000 soldiers on the border, feeding early fears of invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin accuses the West of exacerbating tensions “by delivering modern weapons to Kiev and conducting provocative military exercises” in the Black Sea and near the border.
On November 28, Ukraine assures us that Russia has massed nearly 92,000 soldiers on its borders, for an offensive at the end of January or the beginning of February. The Russian authorities deny this intention, accusing in return Ukraine of massing troops in the east of the country.
On December 7, US President Joe Biden threatens Vladimir Putin with “strong economic sanctions” in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, during a bilateral virtual summit. The Russian president demands “sure legal guarantees” preventing Ukraine from joining NATO.
On the 17th, Moscow unveiled two draft treaties providing for the banning of any enlargement of NATO and the establishment of American military bases in the countries of the former Soviet space. Washington says it is ready to “engage in a diplomatic dialogue” with Putin but considers some of its demands “unacceptable”. On the 28th, Moscow and Washington agree to talks on security in Europe.
On January 10, 2022, Russians and Americans engage in tense negotiations in Geneva, the first stage of a diplomatic sequence. On the 12th, NATO and Russia noted their deep “differences” on security in Europe, during a NATO-Russia council in Brussels.
- Massive cyberattack in Ukraine
On the 14th, several Ukrainian government sites are targeted by a massive cyberattack. The Ukrainian authorities implicate Russia. The same day, Washington accuses Moscow of having sent agents to Ukraine to carry out “sabotage” operations in order to create a “pretext” for an invasion, “gratuitous” assertions according to the Kremlin.
- Russian troops in Belarus
On the 18th, Moscow begins to deploy soldiers to Belarus for “impromptu” combat readiness exercises on the borders of the EU and Ukraine. Washington is worried about the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in this ally, and believes that Moscow can attack Ukraine “at any time”.
On the 19th, Antony Blinken called on Vladimir Putin to choose the “peaceful path” during a support visit to Ukraine, the start of a European tour. Washington is releasing an additional $200 million in security aid to the country. On the same day, Joe Biden raises the possibility of a “minor incursion” by Russia into Ukraine.
The White House then clarifies these remarks, promising “a rapid, severe and united response” from the United States and its allies in the event of the crossing of the border from Ukraine by Russian military forces. On the 20th, the United States approves the requests of the Baltic countries to send American weapons to Ukraine.
US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken shakes hands with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on January 21, 2022 in Geneva, in a photo distributed by the Russian Foreign Ministry
afp.com/Handout
Friday, January 21, Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov meet in Geneva, while Kiev accuses Moscow of increasing its military deliveries to the separatists and that Russia calls in particular for the withdrawal of foreign NATO troops from Romania and Bulgaria . At the end of the meeting, the head of American diplomacy asks Russia to provide proof that Moscow has no intention of invading its neighbor, and to withdraw some 100,000 Russian soldiers massed at the border with Ukraine. He also stresses that the United States will respond “to any aggression by Russia, including non-military aggression”.
The two officials agree that Washington will submit a written response to the Russian demands “next week”, after which, according to Sergei Lavrov, a “new contact” between them will take place. For its part, Kiev accuses Moscow of being behind hundreds of false bomb threats intended to “sow panic” in the country. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Friday he was “convinced” that a Russian military invasion or incursion into Ukraine “won’t happen” and called for diplomacy to resolve the crisis in progress, notably between Russia and the United States.
At the same time, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania announced that same day that they were going to send anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine to enable it to defend itself “in the event of Russian aggression”. The three Baltic states, formerly under Soviet rule, said in a statement they would send US Javelin and Stinger missiles after being cleared to do so by Washington earlier this week.
- Germany affected by the crisis
On Saturday January 22, the head of the German Navy Kay-Achim Schönbach resigned from his post after controversial remarks on the crisis in Ukraine. Among other things, the vice-admiral called the idea that Russia wanted to invade Ukraine as inane. What Vladimir Putin wants, “is to be respected”, declared this soldier according to a video circulating on the Internet, filmed during a meeting of a think tank which was held Friday in New Delhi. “It’s easy to give him the respect he wants, and probably deserves as well,” he added. The idea that Russia wants to invade part of Ukraine would be, according to him, “a nonsense”.
- London accuses Moscow of wanting to overthrow Ukrainian power
The United Kingdom accused Russia on Sunday January 23 of “seeking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kiev” and of “considering” to “occupy” Ukraine. “We have information that Russian intelligence services have links with many former Ukrainian politicians,” Britain’s Foreign Office said in a statement. “According to our information, the Russian government is seeking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kiev, while it plans to invade and occupy Ukraine,” he added. The ministry affirms in this regard that “the former Ukrainian deputy Yevgeniï Muraïev is considered as a potential candidate”. The press release also mentions the names of Serguiï Arbouzov (the first Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine from 2012 to 2014, then acting Prime Minister), Andriï Klouïev (who headed the presidential administration of the former head of Ukrainian state Viktor Yanukovych), Volodymyr Sivkovytch (former deputy secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council) or even Mykola Azarov (Prime Minister of Ukraine from 2010 to 2014).
“Some of them are in contact with Russian intelligence agents currently involved in planning an attack on Ukraine,” accuses the Foreign Ministry, at a time when tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are still camped on the Ukrainian border. The Kremlin denies any bellicose intentions but links a de-escalation to treaties guaranteeing in particular the non-enlargement of NATO, in particular to Ukraine. Unacceptable, say the Westerners, who threaten Russia with very strong sanctions in the event of an attack.
The United States considers the British accusations “deeply concerning”, the White House said in response to a statement from the Foreign Office. “This kind of plotting is deeply concerning. The Ukrainian people have the sovereign right to determine their own future, and we stand with our democratically elected partners in Ukraine,” said National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne.