While the Omicron variant of the Corona virus continues to spread in countries in the south of the African continent and to be detected in other countries, experts are anxiously following a struggle between the two variants that will determine the future of the pandemic. The question plaguing experts is whether the Omicron variant will replace Delta, which is currently the dominant variant in the world.
Analyzing data from South Africa and the UK, some experts are of the opinion that the Omicron variant will replace Delta and become the dominant variant.
Tracking variants as part of a research collaboration at Harvard University School of Medicine, Dr. “It’s still early, but the growing data shows that Omicron is winning the battle with the Delta variant in many, if not all, places,” said Jacob Lemieux.
But other experts say it’s still early to understand what the probability of Omicron spreading faster than the Delta variant is, and how quickly Delta will be replaced if that possibility does.
“Many questions still remain unanswered about Omicron”
“We are seeing a rapid increase in cases of the Delta variant, especially in the United States. We will find out in about two weeks whether Omicron will replace Delta,” said Matthew Binnicker, Director of Clinical Virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.
Many questions remain unanswered, notably whether Omicron causes milder or more severe disease. Whether the immune system of those who have had Covid-19 or been vaccinated before will resist Omicron is also among the questions waiting to be answered.
Regarding the spread of the virus, experts point to South Africa, where Omicron first appeared. The speed at which Omicron is infecting humans and that it has become almost the dominant variant in South Africa worries experts. Chief among these concerns is Omicron’s pressure on hospitals and the healthcare system, causing a new wave of infections.
Omicron was seen in less than 200 cases a day in South Africa in mid-November, while this figure rose to over 16,000 a day last weekend. More than 90 percent of cases identified in the Gauteng region, the epicenter of the new wave of infections in South Africa, contain the Omicron variant, according to experts. Omicron is gaining momentum on its way to becoming the dominant variant helix, expanding rapidly in eight other regions of South Africa.
“The virus is spreading at an extraordinary speed”
Willem Hanekom, President of the African Health Research Institute, said: “The virus is spreading at an extraordinary rate. When you look at the wave curve we are in right now, this curve is steeper than the three previous waves of infection in South Africa. This tells us that the virus is spreading fast and therefore very contagious. It shows,” he said.
Hanekom, who is also the Co-Chair of the South African Covid-19 Variants Research Consortium, points out that the Delta variant cases in South Africa were very low when Omicron emerged, noting that it would not be possible to say that Omicron replaced Delta.
Experts are of the opinion that it is not known whether Omicron’s course in other countries will be the same as in South Africa. Dr. Lemieux notes that there are already some clues about how Omicron will behave in countries that do a lot of genetic sequencing, such as the UK.
“Omicron will become the dominant variant in the US”
Dr. Lemieux points out that there is “too much uncertainty” in the US as in the rest of the world. “When you put together the first data, you see a consistent picture emerge. Omicron has already arrived in the USA. According to our observations in South Africa, Omicron will become the dominant variant in the USA in the coming weeks and months, leading to a rapid increase in the number of cases,” said the expert. .
Time will tell what this means for public health. Willem Hanekom, head of the African Health Research Institute, said that the first data from South Africa showed that the number of infections caused by the Omicron variant was much higher compared to previous variants, which means that the virus somehow won the fight with the immune system. It is observed that Omicron mostly infects the young and the unvaccinated, and the disease course of those under treatment in hospitals is generally mild.
“Those who are not vaccinated should be vaccinated”
However, Matthew Binniker of the Mayo Clinic is of the opinion that the situation may differ in other countries or in different patient groups. “It will be interesting to observe what happens when there are more cases of infection in older adults or those with other health conditions. What will the results be from these patients?” used the phrases.
While the whole world seeks answers to questions, experts advise people to do their best to protect themselves.
“We want people to get as much immunity as possible with vaccines. Those who are not vaccinated should be vaccinated,” said Lemieux. They should apply the methods,” he said.