Would American energy policy undergo a radical change of direction under a future Kamala Harris administration? The debate is growing across the Atlantic because, on climate issues, Kamala Harris is considered much more intransigent than Joe Biden. A reputation she owes to her many feats of arms as a prosecutor, first for the district of San Francisco and then for California between 2011 and 2017.
German automaker Volkswagen is not likely to forget its run-in with the new Democratic leader. The company was ordered to pay $86 million for rigging its vehicles’ emissions using software. Harris has also led a crusade against several oil companies, accused of causing environmental damage, and won tens of millions of dollars in compensation.
Before voting for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, arguably the largest climate investment in US history, Harris also spoke out against fracking — the technique that uses pressurized water to extract shale gas — and any new oil and gas infrastructure. At the time, she advocated for a carbon market in which companies would pay based on their CO2 emissions (a system similar to the one already in place in Europe).
It’s hard to be further from Donald Trump, who wants his country to continue drilling as if climate constraints were just a “hoax”. Unsurprisingly, the Republican representative violently attacked his opponent: “Kamala Harris is the most incompetent and extreme left-wing vice president in American history. She is a radical left-wing lunatic who will destroy the country. We can’t let that happen,” he declared at his last rally in North Carolina.
Finding the right rhetoric
Faced with this kind of attack, the challenge for Kamala Harris will be to reassure Americans without betraying her thinking. Of course, she has a card to play on the climate. About seven in ten Americans say that in the past year, they have been confronted with at least one type of extreme weather event (flood, storm, drought, fire, rising sea levels). And a clear majority of them (67%) prefer renewable energies to coal. However, support for oil and gas extraction remains strong (about 50%) across the Atlantic. According to a survey conducted by Global Energy at the end of 2023, American opinion is four times more polarized on this issue than that of other countries!
In such a divided America, Kamala Harris is walking on eggshells. A recent research note from Clearview Energy Partners suggests that a return to climate issues in the campaign could revive support among voters under 30, whose turnout could potentially decide the fate of several hotly contested swing states. But the risk of waving the green flag too loudly is that it could cloud the economic outlook, a variable that still influences how many Americans vote.
For example, establishing a European-style carbon market, which would require companies to pay to emit CO2, would run counter to the strategy built around the Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to heavily subsidize green technologies in order to stimulate innovation and employment. It would be abandoning the carrot for the stick. Similarly, too frontal opposition to fossil fuels would not go down well in key oil and gas producing states like Pennsylvania.
No significant changes
Kamala Harris will therefore first have to consolidate Joe Biden’s achievements and find the right balance to express her differences on climate, American political commentators summarize. Most of them do not expect her to propose significant changes in energy policy between now and the election. And this is even if Donald Trump multiplies the provocations by constantly recalling his opponent’s old statements.
“During the 2020 primaries, Kamala Harris supported a ban on hydraulic fracturing, before toning down her opinion once she joined Joe Biden’s team. This shows her ability to accept compromises,” several observers note. It remains to be seen who will prove the most attractive, between a Donald Trump prisoner of caricatures and a Kamala Harris who has watered down her wine.
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