The Chinese had done everything to dissuade the Taiwanese from voting for him, even going so far as to launch an observation satellite above the island a few days before the elections. But despite the attempts at intimidation, the population was not afraid, and chose to entrust the reins of the country to the candidate hated by Beijing. Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, the outgoing vice-president, was elected president of Taiwan this Saturday, January 13 with more than 40% of the votes according to almost final results, ahead of Hou Yu-ih (33.4% ), of the Kuomintang, the nationalist formation, more conciliatory towards Beijing. Thanks to him, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP in English), opposed to any idea of unification with China even in the long term, retains power after eight years of Tsai Ing-wen’s presidency.
The Chinese authorities do not hide their aversion for this 64-year-old man, whom they recently described as a “serious danger”. It must be said that Lai stood out with some explosive declarations, breaking absolute taboos for Beijing. In 2017, when he was prime minister, he defined himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan’s independence.” He also said last year to his supporters: “When the Taiwanese president can enter the White House, we will have achieved the political objective that we are pursuing.” So many red lines for China, which considers that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory, and that no country having established diplomatic relations with Beijing can have them with Taipei. After his visit to the United States last August, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused him of being a “troublemaker” and a “separatist.”
The strategic question of his impulsiveness
With Lai Ching-te in power, tensions are unlikely to ease between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Quite the contrary. Especially since its vice-president, Hsiao Bi-khim, 52, who was Taiwan’s representative to the United States from 2020 to the end of November 2023, and whose mother is American, has long had dual nationality, Taiwanese and American , only renouncing the second in 2002. Incessant in recent years, military pressure should therefore continue in 2024: new incursions by fighter planes and warships near Taiwan are to be expected.
In this explosive context, the new president’s ability to control his communication raises questions. “The most strategic question is that of his appetite for risk. As mayor of Tainan (2010-2017), in the south of the island, he left a memory of occasional impulsiveness, underlines Mathieu Duchâtel , director of the Asia program at the Montaigne Institute. Since then, he has sought to calm down as vice-president and has made virtually no deviations. But unlike Tsai Ing-wen, the embodiment of absolute prudence, and who has never gone out of her way, she is someone who could surprise you.”
These two DPP heavyweights don’t have much in common. Less technocratic, Lai, with the black locks of a young man, comes from a much more modest social background. He grew up in a mining village in the north of the island, in a family of six children, raised by their mother. His father, who was a miner, died in an accident deep in a coal mine when he was 2 years old. Unlike Tsai, who is very secretive, he did not hesitate to showcase his personal story during the campaign, playing on emotion. “One of the greatest assets my father left me was being poor. In that environment, I worked harder, more vigorously at everything I did. It gave me determination,” he confided in an interview with the magazine Time.
More idealistic personality
His career is a symbol of meritocracy and social ascension: a medical graduate – he studied at prestigious universities in Taiwan as well as at Harvard – William Lai then occupied all positions in politics, with, unlike Tsai Ing-wen, a strong local anchor: deputy, mayor, prime minister, vice-president… Her commitment was triggered by the fierce desire to “protect” the nascent democracy, “from those who wished it harm”, a- he explained in a column for the Wall Street Journal. It crystallized at the time of the first election by direct universal suffrage, in 1996, less than ten years after the end of martial law, when China had fired missiles into the surrounding waters to try – already – to influence the election.
“Lai is a career politician, while Tsai is a professor who moved into politics [NDLR : elle n’a rejoint le DPP qu’en 2004, pour être élue à sa tête en 2008]. Tsai is a micromanager [qui entre dans le détail des dossiers] while Lai is a macromanager, summarizes Si-Fu Ou, researcher at Taiwan’s National Defense and Security Research Institute. Both have proclaimed their desire to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. However, while Tsai has the personality of a lawyer, Lai stands out with a bit more idealism.”
The two leaders, who belong to different currents within their party, may have had complicated relations. Things came to a head in 2019, when Lai challenged Tsai in a DPP primary, criticizing her record and saying she had no chance of being re-elected – yet she won a second term. The affair would have left its mark, even if the “traitor” was subsequently named vice-president.
The country’s new strongman, however, benefits from an asset to smooth out internal difficulties: his vice-president Hsiao Bi-khim. Close to Tsai Ing-wen, she will liaise with the latter’s team, several members of which could remain in post. Above all, this perfectly bilingual diplomat knows the mysteries of power in Washington well. It will be a key element in reassuring the United States that Taiwan will maintain its pro-American line, and consolidating their support in the long term.
“The nightmare of the American administration would be a repeat of the Chen Shui Bian experience [président (DPP) de 2000 à 2008]who said there was “only one country on each side” [du détroit de Taïwan], specifies Si-Fu Ou. But Lai knows he needs Washington’s blessing. This is why he adjusted his position regarding independence.”
William Lai, who has adopted a more measured tone since he became vice-president, and a fortiori a presidential candidate, should in reality adopt the same diplomatic positioning as the outgoing president, even if his style will be different: namely, maintain the status quo, by not taking any decision likely to provoke a crisis with Beijing. Even if the DPP is traditionally pro-independence, Tsai Ing-wen refrained from officially declaring the independence of the island, considering that it was de facto.
“Since the United States has differences with China on all kinds of issues, the fact that Taiwan resists serves its strategic interests to a certain point – Taiwan must not go too far in provocations, which would lead to war, points out sinologist Jean-Pierre Cabestan, in Hong Kong. Washington will therefore monitor Lai Ching-te closely.” The new president, who will take office in May, is expected to “continue Tsai’s policy of reducing economic dependence on China – even if it remains the main recipient of Taiwanese exports, and therefore a source revenue and growth, particularly in the semiconductor sector.
It remains to be seen how far Chinese President Xi Jinping will go to try to weaken the new government. “China views Lai as more dangerous than Tsai. Beijing will likely continue to exert economic, military, and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, but the extent of that pressure will be influenced by several factors, including Lai Ching-te’s statements and policies , and China’s desire to preserve the fragile stability of the US-China relationship,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the US German Marshall Fund. The other determining element will be the position of the future American president, whose identity will be known in November…
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