The first round of the French legislative elections takes place on Sunday 12 June. And the outcome of this election seems particularly uncertain. Emmanuel Macron will he obtain the majority in the National Assembly? According to the polls, it is not won.
This is what is at stake for the President of the Republic: to succeed in obtaining an absolute majority, to reach this bar of 289 seats which would allow him to have his hands free to govern.
But the latest polls on voting intentions indicate that the presidential majority is neck and neck, sometimes even slightly behind Nupes, the alliance of left-wing parties formed around Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who captured the attention by calling on the French to read it Prime Minister in the legislative elections.
L’Insoumis’ chances of winning thanks to a victory for the left are very low, but his strategy has allowed him to insinuate doubt in the Macron camp, which has accumulated handicaps since the president’s re-election, in particular with the Abad affair, the defector Les Républicains appointed minister and accused of rape. Or the Stade de France fiasco, which put Gérald Darmanin in the hot seat.
With the National Rally absent subscribers at the start of the campaign and Les Républicains who hope to save the furniture after the disaster of the presidential election, it is difficult to make predictions on the distribution of seats. Especially since a major unknown remains: the level of abstention, which could be massive and which will be the key to the ballot.
►Also listen: What do the polls say on the last day of the first round of the French legislative campaign?