What will the new National Assembly look like? At exactly 8 p.m., the French were able to see half a pie chart appear on their screens, supposedly representing the projections translating the results of the first round of the legislative elections. On this colorful graph, the big winner, with nearly 33% of the vote, is clearly the National Rally, which could send between 240 and 270 deputies to the National Assembly, according to the Ifop-Fiducial projection. In this configuration, the party led by Jordan Bardella would win at least 150 more elected representatives than in 2022, without however obtaining an absolute majority in the Palais Bourbon (289 deputies).
Without succeeding in threatening the score of the RN, largely in the lead, the New Popular Front obtains between 28 and 29% of voting intentions and could have, at the end of the second round next Sunday, from 180 to 200 seats according to Ifop; 125 to 165 according to Ipsos; between 130 and 170 according to Opinionway; 115 to 145 according to Elabe. For its part, the presidential coalition Ensemble! (22.10%) could have between 60 and 90 elected representatives, while the Republicans would be credited with 30 to 50 deputies. The rest of the hemicycle would be divided between 13 to 21 deputies from various left (DVG), various right (DVD) and regionalists.
But the figures displayed on your screens on Sunday evening should be taken with a pinch of salt, as recalled in Le FigaroFrançois Kraus, director of the Politics and News division at Ifop. “These are estimates that impose a national scenario in the 577 constituencies. The figures that come out are only broad ranges.” It is therefore difficult, at this time, to fill the chamber with polls.
Several variables left out
To understand this necessary precaution, let us first explain how these projections are established. The pollsters are based on a sample of French people and sift through the results of 500 representative polling stations. This data is analyzed and dissected by an algorithm which takes into consideration different factors, such as possible triangulars or left-right oppositions. From there, provisional results are emerging.
Thus, a series of determining variables in the context of legislative elections are not taken into account, such as the local roots of a candidate or the fact that a voter can change their mind between two rounds. Furthermore, these projections were made without taking into account the voting and withdrawal instructions revealed during election night by the various parties. These could significantly modify the projections issued before and just after the first round.
The weight of voting instructions
A few minutes after 8 p.m., Sunday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the Insoumis, clarified the course of action for the second round: France Insoumise (LFI) will “withdraw” its candidacies in the constituencies where it came in third position and where the National Rally (RN) is in the lead. “Nowhere will we allow the RN to win. […] Our instructions are simple, direct and clear. Not one vote, not one more seat for the RN,” he urged.
On the presidential camp side, the withdrawal instructions remain vague. In a communicatedthe presidential majority, Ensemble pour la République, indicates: “In other constituencies, notably those where our candidates came in 3rd position, we will withdraw in favor of candidates able to beat the National Rally and with whom we share the “essential: the values of the Republic.”
It remains to be seen where the sanitary cordon ends for the majority? One thing is certain: certain rebels could be excluded, like LFI candidate Raphaël Arnault, anti-fascist activist, who will try to defeat the National Rally in Vaucluse.