“Handshakes with the Donalds are often a real challenge…”. Under this ironic title, a three-second video posted online in mid-December by the Polish Prime Minister shows him vigorously shaking the hand of Emmanuel Macron, then visiting Warsaw. A fan of second-degree communication, Donald Tusk is referring here to the long handshakes between the French president and Donald Trump, which sometimes turned into a standoff. In passing, Tusk, “the other Donald”, takes the opportunity to highlight his own energy and his familiarity with Emmanuel Macron.
Since his return to power in the fall of 2023, the 67-year-old conservative liberal has been determined that his country assumes its rank among European powers. The rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union will offer it from January 1 the opportunity to move up a gear. Poland succeeds Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, to the great relief of most other capitals. “This presidency is welcome,” underlines Sébastien Maillard, special advisor at the Jacques Delors Institute. “We have the right to expect a lot from it because Poland is one of the rare countries in a position to exercise real leadership.”
Polish moment
As France and Germany grapple with their domestic difficulties, circumstances indeed appear ripe for a “Polish moment.” The Europhilia of the former President of the European Council (between 2014 and 2019) is undeniable and he belongs to the European People’s Party (EPP), the right-wing family which dominates the agenda and political life in Brussels. Donald Tusk also placed Piotr Serafin, his former right-hand man, at the European Commission, where the latter obtained the strategic budget file. Its victory over the populist ultraconservatives of the Law and Justice party (PiS) strengthened its status, especially since the war in Ukraine, Poland’s voice has been heard much more. Finally, the high amount of military spending (4.2% of GDP in 2024, 4.7% forecast in 2025) reinforces its credibility at a time when a new tenant arrives at the White House.
“The priority of our presidency is Donald Trump, whether we like it or not,” confides a close friend of the Prime Minister. The 47th President of the United States will take office while Poland has been leading the meetings of EU member states for only three weeks. Abrupt decisions by the American on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine or on economic relations with the Old Continent risk upsetting the agenda of the presidency… In anticipation and in these times of “uncertainty and ‘concerns’, the Poles have therefore made security their top priority. A term that they break down into seven chapters, first and foremost defense, border protection, the fight against foreign interference and energy. “Europe is going through a time of trials and decisions,” we can read on the site which presents their program in detail.
Firmness towards Moscow
Favorable, like Paris, for greater strategic autonomy for the European Union, Warsaw seeks to strengthen the resilience of the 27, particularly in the face of Russia. And if the Weimar triangle with France and Germany has been reactivated, Donald Tusk has also increased contacts with his Baltic and Nordic counterparts, supporters like him of a very firm line against Moscow. He did not appreciate Emmanuel Macron’s public declarations on sending European troops to Ukraine after a possible ceasefire, which he considered premature. For their part, the French remain suspicious of the supposed Atlanticism of the Poles. “We want ambitious action on defense, which complements NATO’s action,” they write in their European program, as a preamble to their chapter devoted to military affairs. Their suggestion to buy more American equipment to mollify Donald Trump hardly enchants Paris.
“They have the choice between taking the lead in the group of countries which are on the front line against Russia or joining France, Germany and Italy, the adults in the room, who are looking for compromises, deciphers a diplomat. Donald Tusk wants to join the adults, but the Poles keep the DNA of activists and martyrs.” Until now, Warsaw has often defended its own interests tooth and nail, without necessarily taking into account the general European interest. Thus, Poland demanded in the fall to be able to suspend the common rules on the right to asylum to turn back migrants exploited at its border by Belarus.
Its partners are therefore waiting to see if, from January, Warsaw will act more collectively, for example on the exemption from customs duties for Ukrainian cereals, to which Polish farmers are very hostile. “They have presidential elections in May, this risks perverting their semester,” worries a European diplomat. In the spring, the liberals indeed want to defeat the PiS candidate, in order to be able to govern without the threat of a presidential veto.
Prophet or flash in the pan?
With one eye on Brussels, the other on the electoral campaign in Warsaw, will Donald Tusk be able to forge European unity in what promise to be crucial months? “The press is always looking for a prophet, but this risks being a flash in the pan!” snaps one of those who have been around the Pole for years in European mysteries. “The Poles are not ‘Eurobeats’. Like all big countries, they defend their interests. Which does not prevent them from playing in the big leagues,” says Sébastien Maillard. The responsibility on their shoulders will in any case be significant.
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