Will voters mobilize on June 30 and July 7? This is one of the great unknowns of these legislative elections. More than a million proxies have already been validated according to the Ministry of the Interior, and participation could reach 63%. according to an Ifop survey for The JDD published Sunday June 16. Or 15 points more than in 2022. Such a figure would be a sign of a revitalized interest of the French in these historic elections, but could also increase the number of triangulars in the second round.
To win a legislative election in the first round, you must obtain 50% of the votes cast and 25% of voters registered on the electoral lists. Otherwise, a second round is required, with the two candidates coming in first. But a third contender can remain if he received the vote of 12.5% of those registered.
This is where participation plays a crucial role. If it is low, then it is more difficult for a candidate to reach this threshold. But if it is high, the candidate who comes in third place has every chance of passing it. “It’s mathematical. With 60% participation, the candidates must exceed 20.8% of the votes cast. So the greater the participation, the more triangulars there are”, explains political scientist Jean-Yves Dormagen to New Obs.
Few candidates this year
In recent years, fewer and fewer voters have gone to the polls for the legislative elections. In 2022, as in 2017, less than 50% traveled. Which inevitably reduced the number of triangulars: only one in 2017 and eight two years ago. Far from the record of 1997. During these early elections following (already) a dissolution of the National Assembly, 79 triangular elections took place, including 76 with National Front candidates. Participation was then 68%!
Another factor to take into account: the number of candidates. This year, with the union of the left in the New Popular Front, the alliances between Republican candidates and the National Rally, and the decision of the presidential camp not to nominate anyone in the face of certain outgoing deputies, there are much fewer contenders than in previous elections. The very short deadline for submitting a candidacy also prevented certain parties from proposing candidates, such as the Animalist Party. All these parameters mean that the votes will not be dispersed among a host of parties, and that it will therefore be easier to bring together 12.5% of those registered.
Withdrawal, a thorny issue
However, one question remains unanswered. Should a candidate who manages to survive in the second round withdraw to block the National Rally? Historically, it is this party which benefits from the triangulars, because the votes of its opponents are scattered over two other candidates. On the left, all the political leaders are kicking in. Only MEP Raphaël Glucksmann took a clear position from Friday June 14 on France Inter. “What I am calling for, in my personal name, is to line up behind the candidate who is a Democrat and who will be best placed to face the RN and block its path,” he said.
Former president François Hollande, surprise candidate in Corrèze, shares this opinion. “In the second round, the Republican withdrawal must be applied in all its rigor” in favor of “any candidate who has put himself out of any relationship with the extreme right,” he told BFMTV.
But the positions of the other parties are vague, including Renaissance. Some, like the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin, will practice “neither-nor”: “neither National Rally, nor LFI”. Others, like Olivia Grégoire, will opt for the blank vote, “unless it is a moderate socialist” on the left. Clément Beaune, for his part, is one of the rare ones to say that he will even vote for a rebellious candidate to block the RN.