Go on a good basis, allow a semblance of debate in order to tear a potential agreement. This is in essence the mission that François Bayrou entrusted to the Court of Auditors, responsible for giving his “truth of the figures” on the financial situation of our pension system. After a month of work, the magistrates of rue de Cambon gave their “flash” mission on February 20. The conclave, bringing together unions and employers’ organizations, will meet this Thursday, February 27.
Participants will try to find, by the beginning of June, avenues for improving the last pension reform which brought the legal departure age to 64. Some wish his outright repeal, others say they are ready to perfect a text adopted in pain by 49-3 two years ago. The Prime Minister nevertheless set a red line: the new version should not worsen the pension “hole”.
On the table, will appear a thick report of the Court of Auditors providing that the deficit of the pension system will amount to 6.6 billion euros in 2025, will stabilize until 2030, before leaving in a rush and reach 15 billion euros in 2035 then 30 billion in 2045. The financial jurisdiction also had to answer a crucial question: is there a hidden deficit “, linked, In particular, at retreats from civil servants?
It is the Prime Minister, who, in his declaration of general policy, had sowed doubt by evoking a deficit of 45 to 55 billion euros, much higher than the forecasts of the Pension Orientation Council (COR). “François Bayrou, in a way, opened the Pandora’s box with this outing,” said economist Charles Dennery, author of Reform (really) pensions (PUF). For the Court of Auditors, it is not. If it recognizes that the State strongly contributes to the rebalancing of the retirement system of civil servants – 45.1 billion euros in 2023 – due to the demographic imbalance (fewer assets for more retirees), the institution considers that Private and public regimes are not comparable and that there is therefore no need to count balance subsidies.
A form of cowardice?
“The Court of Auditors shows a form of cowardice and accounting blindness”, criticizes economist Antoine Levy. According to him, “it is an accounting artifice which makes it possible to ignore the problem and to give the illusion that the social partners fully manage the pensions, while in reality, a third of the system is funded by the tax . of pensions without surplus, but also by their taxes, which do not give entitlement to any future pension. “
The choice of the Court of Auditors seems above all motivated by political considerations in order to avoid the conclave a brief existence. “If it had announced a deficit of 50 billion euros, the social partners would have refused to enter into any negotiation. We should not load the boat,” said Charles Dennery. From now on, the debate is distorted and the subject may be put under the carpet at least until the next presidential election.
The now muzzled debate
A solution of ease in defiance of reality. “They can display a fictitious balance and build unrealistic projections on productivity growth, the evolution of pensions, or the retirement age, while obscuring the fact that a part of the funding is based on Taxes and debt, “analyzes Antoine Levy.
How to contradict them now? “Much will say that there is no hidden deficit, since the Court of Auditors has not reported it. This will make it more difficult to define an alternative discourse on the issue,” deplores Charles Dennery.
However, the ex-official Jean-Pascal Beaufret does not bother. It is he who, against all odds, defends the idea that the accounting method used by the COR, and now taken up by the Court of Auditors, is not the right one. With major consequences. “If we only take into account the future without questioning the current weight of pensions, the measures envisaged will be very limited. For years, we will have to borrow massively”, judges the former CEO At 78 billion euros all the subsidies issued by the State in 2023 – more than half of the public deficit that year. “The Court of Auditors ignores those from the State operators, as well as the additional contribution paid by communities and hospitals,” he said. Masy a little more the relentless reality of the figures which she claimed to want to give all the truth.
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