The ax had to fall sooner or later. After clinging for a long time to a growth objective of 1.4% for the year 2024, far from the forecasts of many institutes and economists, the government has decided to review its copy and is now counting on 1%. It was Bruno Le Maire, in person, who came on February 18, to TF1’s 20 Hours, to make amends. As a result of this missed forecast, the State must find 10 billion in savings in its coffers in order to compensate for the potential gap in tax revenue. If Bercy had already mentioned such an amount, its way of proceeding had not yet filtered out. What’s better than a wave of a magic wand to erase that cumbersome slate?
In detail, a first part of the budgetary plan in ministries and state operators should make it possible to save 5 billion euros. The administration’s payroll will, for example, be reduced thanks, in particular, to the postponement of certain recruitments. In addition, agent travel will be reduced by 20%. A second aspect concerns public policies. The MaPrimeRenov’ energy renovation aid system has seen its budget reduced by one billion euros. The same goes for the allocation of the green fund, which goes from 500 million euros to 100 million euros, while certain projects planned as part of public development assistance will be postponed. Defer, postpone, postpone… So many synonyms that Bercy could have used to detail its measures, the effectiveness of which is difficult to measure.
An artificial puncture
Especially since the account is – for the moment – not there. “When we look at the documents that have been published, we have difficulty finding the 10 billion, it would rather be around 8,” points out François Ecalle, founder of the Fipeco site. “In addition, these are cancellations of credits. Alongside, there will be openings: we spoke of 3 billion euros in favor of Ukraine, 500 million for hospitals and 400 million for farmers “There will not be a drop of 10 billion net”, warns the former magistrate at the Court of Auditors. At the end of the year, state spending was expected to amount to around 492 billion euros, according to the scope defined by the 2024 finance bill, or nearly 40 billion more than in 2023. No hope, therefore, that the cuts decided two days ago will reverse the inflationary trend that France records year after year.
The publicity operation orchestrated by the Minister of the Economy is in reality nothing more than an artificial drain. “We are going to limit spending for a few months, but these are not, a priori, structural cuts which could make it possible to avoid tax increases that are penalizing for growth. We have the feeling that these measures serve primarily to save time”, judges Olivier Redoulès, director of studies at the Rexecode Institute. The executive was right with its growth forecast in 2023. As for 2024, it seems to be sailing by sight. “These announcements demonstrate a form of unpreparedness and a lack of risk control. There is, in the government’s defense, a political context which does not lend itself to savings. But it has chosen to base its strategy budget on deliberately optimistic hypotheses. From there, he took the risk of finding himself in the current situation. Lacking room for maneuver, we are reduced to making last minute adjustments,” continues the economist.
“We confuse management and decision”
The process in isolation, between Bercy, Matignon and the Elysée, also raises questions. For the lawyer Michel Bouvier, president of Fondafip, the International Public Finance Foundation, “we are confusing management and decision-making. In terms of public accounts, we should rethink political decision-making by involving other actors.” “Countries that manage to control their spending share the effort between the State, communities and social security, with a real sharing of responsibilities,” adds Olivier Redoulès.
As for the ministries, with the exception of the efforts made for the travel of their agents, nothing suggests that these reductions in expenditure will last over time. The State should above all carry out a precise and serious evaluation of all its components. “We must give the operational services of the ministries a management method as effective as that of the operators. This is something we have not been able to do for decades, for cultural and historical reasons, believes a senior official from Bercy. He There was once an effective contract in the general budget and tax directorates, which allowed savings of up to 2.5% per year. A gentle method that is no longer used today.
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