Emmanuel Macron announced to the French that he would ask them to “decide” on certain subjects in 2025, but he did not say how. If his declaration makes the hypothesis of a referendum possible, this scenario is not without risk for the head of state.
Emmanuel Macron promised the French that they will have the opportunity to “decide” on “determining issues” in 2025. A declaration which opens the way to the organization of a “referendum or citizen conventions” confirmed the entourage of the head of state to BFMTV without giving any guarantee or details. There is still reason to doubt the establishment of referendums… The President of the Republic has regularly mentioned this democratic tool since his arrival at the Elysée in 2017 without ever going as far as voting, the fault of various political obstacles, some of which remain.
If a referendum is envisaged, it must respect article 11 of the Constitution which strictly regulates the subjects on which the opinion of the French can be requested: “any bill relating to the organization of public powers” can be submitted to the referendum , on reforms relating to the economic or social policy of the nation and public services” or aimed “at authorizing the ratification of a treaty which would have an impact on the functioning of institutions”. Constitutional provisions which currently prevent referendums from being held on subjects such as immigration as requested by right-wing and far-right political forces.
An obstacle that can be circumvented with article 89 of the Constitution, the only other text to provide for a referendum. It makes it possible to revise the Constitution – to review the scope of referendums or more directly to amend the fundamental text – by voting on a draft or a proposal for revision in identical terms to the National Assembly and the Senate then submitting this text in the referendum. In this case, the French may be required to express themselves on broader subjects. But we still need to succeed in having a text adopted in Parliament, the Assembly of which is still divided into three distinct blocks.
The composition of the lower house and especially its lack of majority risks being another obstacle for Emmanuel Macron since the head of state must have the approval of Parliament to organize a referendum. “Already in the Assembly, it is impossible to have a budget adopted, so imagine a referendum project”, underlines the constitutionalist Anne-Charlène Bezzina to the Parisian emphasizing the difficulty of obtaining a majority. The fact remains that the oppositions are open to holding future referendums, in particular on immigration for the right half of the political spectrum or on pension reform for the left. “We have no shortage of ideas to submit” to the head of state, wrote Fabien Roussel on X.
The risk of a referendum for or against Macron
If certain legal provisions complicate the organization of a referendum, other factors dissuade Emmanuel Macron from seeking the opinion of the French. The President of the Republic, whose popularity rating is at half mast according to the latest political barometer carried out by Elabe for Les Echos and published in December – only 21% of voters trust him -, fears that a referendum will become a plebiscite vote for or against him, and therefore for or against his retention at the Elysée.
Resorting to a referendum represents a “danger” for Emmanuel Macron according to political scientist Benjamin Morel contacted by BFMTV. “If we were to have a failed referendum today, it would increase calls for Emmanuel Macron’s resignation”, would weaken the stature of the head of state and strengthen the opposition. This scenario could also reinforce the hypothesis of a resignation of Emmanuel Macron with the precedent of 1969 when General De Gaulle resigned after a “no” referendum. “The corridor is narrow for Emmanuel Macron. He must find a totally depersonalized subject in order not to fall into the referendum for or against Macron,” confirms constitutionalist Anne-Charlène Bezzina at Parisian.
Alternatives to the referendum
If he judges the referendum route too risky, Emmanuel Macron has reserved the possibility of resorting to other options to consult the French: the citizens’ convention like those set up in 2019 on the climate or in 2022 on the end of life. Especially since the Head of State had announced the holding of a third citizens’ convention before the end of his second term on a subject decided by the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (Cese). This method allows French people chosen by lot to work on subjects accompanied by specialists to draw up proposals, but it is not binding on the President of the Republic.
Another option can also be considered: a new dissolution which will only be possible from July. Early legislative elections would take place again and would allow the French to “decide” by going to the polls to elect new deputies. But in view of the results of the last legislative elections which led to the tripartite composition of the National Assembly, nothing says that a new ballot will resolve the political crisis.