Nothing goes as planned. Six months ago, the judicial calendar provided for the opening of the federal trial against Donald Trump – accused of having fomented the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, 2021 – on March 4, the eve of “Super Tuesday”. This was to be the beginning of his decline, his opponents hoped. But this trial was postponed until Saint-Glinglin. And, on the contrary, the court decision handed down yesterday by the Supreme Court in another procedure (also linked to the events of January 6, 2021) places the former president in a favorable position.
Monday March 4, the highest American court unanimously rejected the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court which wanted to prevent Donald Trump from running in this state on the grounds that he had fomented the insurrection at the Capitol. An upholding of the Colorado judges’ position would have had the effect of setting a precedent that would likely have prevented Trump from running in other states. It is not so. On the contrary, the unanimity of the nine American wise men struck people’s minds. They made their decision by nine votes to zero. Monday’s decision – in short, a “Super Monday” for Trump – galvanizes the MAGA (Make America Great Again) camp for today’s “Super Tuesday” vote.
In 15 states (1) out of 50, including Texas and California, which are among the most populous, Republicans are voting today on the party’s candidate. They must choose between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and former Trump ambassador to the United Nations. Normally, “Super Tuesday” is one of the major highlights of American presidential campaigns. A day full of suspense. A moment of intense excitement. This is the day when a plethora of simultaneous ballots confirm a trend or, conversely, tip the primaries to relaunch a candidate who is off to a bad start, like Joe Biden against Bernie Sanders in 2020. Nothing like this is to be expected This year. If “Super Tuesday” 2024 goes down in history, it will be one of the most predictable in history or the one that started the ride towards Donald Trump’s victory on November 5.
Normally – but nothing is normal since Trump took control of the Republican Party – at this stage there remain three, four, or even more candidates. This year, there are only two. However, apart from a very modest victory in the Washington DC primary won on Sunday March 3 in this essentially Democratic city (in the 2020 presidential election, Trump had capped at 5% of the vote), Nikki Haley has lost all the previous votes. According to polls, Trump is the big favorite for “Super Tuesday”. Therefore, the question is: can the 52-year-old candidate avoid a Trumpist tidal wave during this day when 854 “delegates”, or a third of the total, are at stake. These delegates will then vote during the Republican convention, mid-July, which will officially nominate the candidate for the White House.
Another question arises: in the event of another electoral defeat, can Nikki Haley stay in the race until June 4, the date of the final primaries which will take place in four states: Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Dakota South ? Or, on the contrary, will she resolve to throw in the towel, as one does in a boxing ring to stop the game (and the blows)? Last weekend, on the set of the show Meet the Press, she further maintained the suspense by suggesting that she was not giving up anything. In other words: that she could continue until the end, even if it means constantly taking electoral uppercuts from heavyweight Donald Trump. A clue, however: beyond “Super Tuesday”, nothing, no campaign event, is currently on Nikki Haley’s agenda. Nor, for that matter, that of Trump. Campaigning is expensive. And if “the game is over” this evening, financing an electoral caravan at a loss would be of little interest.
“Hurricane Trump”, an unstoppable climatic phenomenon
Only one scenario could explain Nikki Haley’s possible obstinacy: she would place herself in a waiting position, hoping that something unforeseen would get in Trump’s way, either in the form of a health problem or in the form of legal problems. Both hypotheses seem improbable. “Hurricane Trump” has the appearance of a force of nature, even an unstoppable climatic phenomenon. And his lawyers are seeking, through multiple appeals, to push back his legal calendar beyond the date of the presidential election.
By persisting in direct confrontation with Donald Trump, Nikki Haley could also compromise her own political future by appearing as a divisive force in the Democratic Party. The hypothesis, sometimes discussed by commentators, according to which Nikki Haley could negotiate a position of vice-president on a Trump-Haley “ticket” also seems far-fetched. If everyone thinks that the candidate will reserve this function for a woman, others seem better placed than Haley. Thus the young senator from Alabama Katie Britt, 42 years old – who will make her big debut by delivering the response to the State of the Union speech delivered by Joe Biden this Thursday – or the representative of Congress Elise Stefanik, 39 years old. Both seem more in line with Donald Trump’s taste.
On the male side, the Republican Party executives are discreet. Behind the scenes, ambitious senators Marco Rubio (Florida), Ted Cruz (Texas) and Josh Hawley (Missouri) are honing their weapons for the “next blow”, that is to say the 2028 presidential election. However, the name by Tim Scott, African-American senator from South Carolina, is being whispered in Washington. Just like a female vice-candidate, an African-American vice-candidate would have the advantage of pulling the rug out from under the Biden-Harris tandem. In the meantime, speculation and rumors are rife. According to the popular “twist” scenario, Nikki Haley could abandon the Republican primary race to bounce back as an “independent candidate”, as happened in 1992 when troublemaker billionaire Ross Perot ran for office. was inserted between Bill Clinton and George HW Bush to obtain 19% of the votes (and thus cause Bush to lose).
The No Labels organization, which is campaigning for a “third candidate”, has indicated that it does not rule out pushing the candidacy of Nikki Haley. “She, for her part, brushes aside these speculations by affirming that her place is within the Republican Party,” writes the political site The Hill about the one who embodies a traditional “Reagan” conservatism. “In this volatile environment, the only certainty is that, among the Republicans, the young generation has lots of ulterior motives because they are already preparing for the post-Trump era,” explains the specialist on the United States, Françoise Coste. Nikki Haley therefore plays tight. She must embody an alternative but she must not go too far in her opposition to Trump so as not to appear as the woman who divides the party, which the activists would not forgive her for.” It is perhaps for her, deep down, that “Super Tuesday” will be the most decisive.
(1) Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Alaska, Utah.