Why Kamala Harris Will Quickly Hit a Wall – L’Express

July 2024 is already set to go down in American history as one of the craziest months in American politics. Within ten days of each other, a former president, Donald Trump, narrowly escaped being shot and killed, and his successor withdrew from a second run for president after a disastrous debate—that was on June 27—told the country what the White House had been trying to hide for months: the physical and cognitive decline of the 46th president, Joe Biden, 81. Add in Microsoft’s massive computer crash last week and the visit of Benjamin Netanyahu (who is scheduled to address Congress this week as the war in Gaza rages), and the sequence is dizzying.

Of course, Joe Biden’s last-minute withdrawal has a precedent. Fifty-six years ago, in 1968, Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson, who was suffering from heart problems and severe unpopularity due to the Vietnam War, also decided to throw in the towel. But that was in March, not July as it is today, which left the Democratic camp very little time to reorganize itself in the face of the “Trump machine”, already leading in the polls. The Democratic Party convention, which – in a disturbing parallel – was taking place in Chicago as it is today, had then turned into a disaster. In November, Republican Richard Nixon had been elected against the lackluster Hubert Humphrey.

She is far from being the ideal candidate.

Since yesterday, the question has been raised: who will replace Joe Biden at the last minute? The president has already publicly given his support to his vice-president Kamala Harris while she has affirmed that she would do everything possible to unite the Democratic camp and defeat Donald Trump. Easier said than done. On the one hand, the political dynamic of the moment is clearly on the side of the Republican Party, more united, better organized and carried – whatever one thinks – by a candidate with phenomenal energy. But above all, Kamala Harris is far from being an ideal candidate.

As they say in the United States, “you only get one chance in life to make a good first impression.” In the case of the vice president, that chance has long since passed. A senator from 2016 to 2020, she did not leave a lasting memory. Vice president since 2021, she has lost interest in the admittedly difficult task that Joe Biden had assigned her: trying to find a solution to the problem of illegal immigration, or at least pretending to be interested in the subject.

The African-American vote is not a given

The president’s entourage also held the vice president in low esteem. And privately, many of Biden’s elected officials and close friends do not believe she is capable of holding the presidency. On the national stage, her public appearances have never convinced, and she has so far been mainly known for her thunderous laugh, which seems to reflect a permanent embarrassment. In addition, she has not really managed to consolidate the support of the African-American vote (who represent 12% of the electorate), which was nevertheless the reason for Biden’s promotion of her in 2020. On the contrary, Donald Trump has nibbled away at “market share” among the black electorate.

Finally, internationally, where she has sometimes been sent on duty by the White House, her speeches have left no mark. Boastful, Donald Trump hastened to declare that she would be “easier to beat than Joe Biden” while the “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) campaign team published a video on social networks targeting Kamala Harris in order to associate her with Joe Biden’s record and the lies that surrounded his state of health.

In short, Kamala Harris will have a lot to do to convince Americans in general and the Democratic Party in particular that she is the woman for the job. In the hours, days and weeks to come, she absolutely must “crack the armor”, pull out all the stops and demonstrate in words and deeds that she can do better than Joe Biden. However, several polling institutes have already measured her unpopularity, which is higher than that of Joe Biden. Of course, that can change. Bill and Hillary Clinton have already given her their support, as soon as Joe Biden announced his withdrawal on Sunday, July 21.

The deafening silence of the Obama couple

But, to tell the truth, the former presidential couple no longer carries much weight… unlike Barack and Michelle Obama who prudently contented themselves with saluting the greatness of Joe Biden while refraining from commenting on a replacement candidate. The very influential octogenarian Nancy Pelosi, former leader of the Democrats in Congress – who is said to have played an important role in the abandonment of her friend Biden – is no more seduced by the personality of Kamala Harris.

On paper, the withdrawal of the outgoing president’s candidacy is likely to create momentum in the Democratic camp and steal the “narrative” from Trump and his team. In a month, at the Democratic Convention in Chicago, Illinois, the entire country will have its eyes fixed on the party to see if it is capable of reinventing itself. One thing is certain: already worn out by her vice-presidency, Kamala Harris will not embody the new thing, but rather the page that Americans want to turn.

We will therefore have to monitor the dynamics at work in the Democratic camp from today to try to see what scenario will emerge between now and the Chicago convention, from July 19 to 22. The games are wide open. And no one can say that Donald Trump’s opponent on November 5 will be the Afro-Asian Californian Kamala Harris, who basically only has one asset: a well-established reputation. For better or for worse.