A little tune is rising among American political observers: Kamala Harris’ campaign recalls the optimistic atmosphere of Barack Obama’s rallies in 2008. The current vice-president’s team will, however, have to be careful not to fall into the trap of another race for the White House, lost this time by the Democrats, through overconfidence: that of 2016.
“Even if there was not such excitement around Hillary Clinton, the feeling that emerged in her camp was that the deal was in the bag: the parallel is obvious!” notes historian Françoise Coste, professor at the University of Toulouse-Jean-Jaurès.
Undeniably, the momentum of the moment is on the side of Kamala Harris, whose candidacy was propelled by the withdrawal of Joe Biden on July 21. Almost 20 years younger than her opponent, Donald Trump, a woman and mixed race, the former California attorney general seeks to embody renewal and a positive future (summed up by the slogan “Forward”), while the Republican businessman symbolizes, according to her, the past and a dark vision of the world.
Polls within margin of error
This momentum is already being felt in the polls: Kamala Harris is now a few points ahead of Donald Trump nationally and in some key states. And in rallies, where she is managing to attract crowds. As for the former American president, who just a few weeks ago seemed untouchable after narrowly escaping an assassination attempt, he does not seem to have found his rhythm, locking himself into his personal attacks on his rival. “Certainly, Trump is in a bad way. But how many times in 2016 did people say: ‘Trump is collapsing’?” asks Françoise Coste.
Although they do reflect an acceleration, the poll numbers can indeed be misleading. “The results remain close, we are within the margin of error. This is even more true in the key states where the election will be played out,” emphasizes Ludivine Gilli, an expert on the United States at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. As we know, due to the particularities of its system and the role played by the electors, the American election is not played out on a national scale, but in a handful of swing states. Recall that Donald Trump won in 2016 with only 46% of the popular vote.
Hillary Clinton’s Mistake
The failure of Hillary Clinton – who also dreamed of becoming the first female president in the history of the United States – should encourage the Democratic camp not to get carried away. Especially since eight years ago at the same time, Hillary Clinton enjoyed a much more comfortable lead than Kamala Harris (nearly 7 points ahead of Donald Trump in some polls).
As the American convention begins this Monday in Chicago, tasked with launching Kamala Harris’ candidacy, the trap would be to fall into arrogance or contempt. Bill Clinton’s wife had judged that “half” of Trump’s voters were “pathetic”: a regrettable statement that cost her dearly. At the same time, “the mistake of the Democrats, too sure of their victory in 2016, was to neglect certain key states, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which they thought were won over to their cause, and which Hillary Clinton lost,” explains Ludivine Silli.
Under the leadership of Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’ running mate and governor of Minnesota, the Democrats, determined not to be intimidated by the Trumpists, have found a line of attack that they are hammering home at will: Republicans are “weird.” The elitism and condescension of 2016 are not far away. “Everyone is gargling at the newfound offensive tone. But this mocking self-satisfaction has already played tricks on the Democrats. The Republican candidates may be “weird,” but many people are like them, and do not find it “weird” to believe in God, to be against abortion, or to refuse gender-neutral personal pronouns…”, insists Françoise Coste.
Democrats must keep a cool head all the more since there are more than two months left before November 5th – an eternity in politics – and the campaign is expected to get tougher in the fall, after the summer torpor. Donald Trump, very good at exploiting his opponent’s weaknesses, is then likely to be particularly offensive on the themes of immigration at the border – Joe Biden had assigned his vice president the mission of slowing it down, which she failed to do – and inflation. Even though it was contained below 3% in July, prices have increased by an average of 20% since the start of Biden’s presidency, with the increase being particularly significant for gas tanks and food products. The conflict in the Middle East, the management of which by the White House is provoking protests within the pro-Palestinian left wing, could also weaken the Democratic candidate, especially if the region erupts into flames.
Show that she cares about people
Clearly aware of the risks, Kamala Harris wants to be cautious. “I don’t see us as favorites at all,” she said Sunday during a visit to Pennsylvania. “We have to earn every vote and that means being on the road, meeting people.” “She has to demonstrate clearly and convincingly that she cares about people’s concerns, believes in the Financial Times Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist and former party chair, says Donald Trump still has the edge.
In this context, the most promising issue for the candidate remains her commitment to abortion rights, while its challenge at the federal level in 2022 by conservative Supreme Court justices has caused a stir across the country, including among Republican voters. White, educated women in large cities and residential suburbs, who normally vote Republican, around Detroit, Milwaukee or Philadelphia are therefore particularly targeted.
“If Democrats continue to capitalize on this momentum, they can win, but it’s far from a given. Kamala Harris has managed to win points among young people, African-Americans and Latinos, but she will need to fill up on votes from these populations that traditionally vote for Democrats if she wants to win. But young people, for example, are not the ones who mobilize the most and may be held back by the management of the conflict in Gaza. And Latinos are a disparate electorate.”
“Right now, the constituency she needs most and has least secured is the white lower-middle class: the workers of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,” the researcher continues. “And there is still work to be done there.” Hence the choice as running mate of Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, whose past as a high school teacher and American football coach, and his appearance as an average Midwesterner, is supposed to appeal to this type of voter. One thing is certain: they will not want to feel judged either.
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