The agreement concluded on March 10 between the current authority in Syria and the Syrian democratic forces (FDS), an armed branch of the Kurds, opens the way to a major question on the future of the country: will the integration of the Kurds in the new state mark the beginning of an era of peace, or should we expect new conflicts? Especially since the Syrian army includes jihadist units which retain their autonomy and which will never be able to accept the Kurds, their traditional enemies.
At the start of the revolution against the regime of Bashar El-Assad in 2011, the Kurds, long marginalized by the central power, gradually took control of their regions, located in the northeast of the country. They then proclaimed an autonomous administration based on a system of decentralized and pluralist governance. With the rise of Daesh, they have become essential actors in the fight against jihadism. The FDS have benefited from military support from the international coalition led by the United States. The Battle of Kobane (2014-2015) marked a turning point, followed by the Liberation of Raqqa in 2017, a former “capital” of Daesh in Syria.
Since the arrival of Donald Trump in power, the United States has expressed its desire to leave Syrian territory. Once this withdrawal has been made, the Kurds will find themselves besieged between the power in place in Damascus and Turkey. The latter considers FDS as a terrorist organization. Negotiations have taken place since January between Ahmad el-Chareh, acting Syrian president, and Mazloum Abdi, head of the FDS, under the sponsorship of the United States. These discussions led to the current agreement, the most important article of which recognizes the Kurdish community as an integral part of the Syrian State and guarantees its rights to citizenship.
Over 800 civilians killed
As soon as the agreement was announced, joy has invaded Syrian cities. Thousands of people went down to the streets to celebrate the “total liberation of Syria”. The zone controlled by the Kurds represents 30 % of the territory. It contains around 70 to 80 % of the country’s oil reserves, a large part of the production of wheat and cotton, and the Euphrate river, essential for irrigation and electricity thanks to hydroelectric dams. These resources will be distributed to the whole of Syria, a country that experiences an economical free fall.
But the Kurds, like the other Syrian minorities, must remain extremely vigilant and learn from what happened to the Alawites. Following the fall of Assad, the authority of Ahmad el-Chareh reassured this community: “If they drop their weapons, they will be safe.” This did not prevent massacres committed against the Alawites of the Coast. 830 civilians were killed between March 6 and 10 by jihadist units integrated into the army. This pushed the Druzes, a religious minority in southern Syria, to cling even more firmly to their arms. Like the Alawites, some even called Israel to protect them from the authority of Ahmad el-Chareh.
A legacy of hatred
The Assad regime has left a legacy of hatred between the Syrians. The bombings aimed at the Sunnis fueled resentment towards the Alawite minority, taken hostage by Assad. The Kurds have long suffered from Assad’s oppression like Sunnis. This division between religious and ethnic communities is accompanied by very different lifestyles. It is visible between practicing Sunnis, who consider the veil, the ban on alcohol, the practice of Ramadan or prayer as sacred acts, and the other communities which do not believe in these principles. When I returned to Syria in January, I asked the members of the army of the Minister of the Interior: “Are you going to force people to apply Sharia law?” Their answer? “We will advise them to do so.” A soldier who carries a Kalashnikov and “advises” a woman with free hair to veil herself or an unmarried couple not to walk together arouses terror in minorities living in Damascus.
In a cafe in the city, I blasphemed, which was normal in intellectual circles before the 2011 revolution. But, this time, friends with whom I was expressed their fear: “Never do it in a public place again, a new law has just been released: the one who blasphemy will be sentenced to a year in prison.” In this context, the only solution in order to avoid conflicts and respect ethnic and religious diversity, is the creation of a federal state. This would allow each community to have local autonomy, applying their social standards there.
But this federal state cannot be viable without guarantees of the international community. It could be inspired by existing models, such as Switzerland, Germany or Iraq. Each region would have its own government. The centralization of power in Damascus has always been a major cause of tensions. Federalizing this country does not mean dividing it, but preventing a civil war from having its dislocation, which could have major consequences throughout the Middle East.
Writer and poet born in Damascus, Omar Youssef Souleimane participated in the demonstrations against the regime of Bashar el-Assad, but, tracked down by the secret services, had to flee Syria in 2012. Refugee in France, he published by Flammarion The little terrorist,, The last Syrian, A room in exile And Be French.
.