China and Russia have reassured their friendship in recent years. In the war in Ukraine, China seems to have taken a cautious line so far, although Russia has allegedly even asked for help with arms.
Tom Kankkonen,
Elsa Osipova
The United States claimed on Sunday that Russia had asked China for military equipment, including drones and facial recognition technology.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as well as China denied the allegations on Monday. According to China, this is a US disinformation campaign.
Experts interviewed by consider it unlikely that China will start assisting Russia militarily in the war in Ukraine, as it involves both political and economic risks.
What kind of weapons does China have?
It is known that China is not a pioneer in high weapons technology. Among other things, China has significantly fewer nuclear warheads than the United States or Russia.
Professor of Political Science Juha Vuori The Faculty of Management and Economics at the University of Tampere says that the technology of China’s most advanced fighters and other military equipment has either been plagiarized elsewhere, stolen or bought.
– China has acquired weapons systems from Russia, such as fighter jets and other weapons technology. Similarly, a lot of Chinese space technology comes from Russia, Vuori says.
In facial recognition applications, on the other hand, China is the most advanced in the world because it has not had any regulatory restrictions on technology development.
However, providing online surveillance systems and facial recognition technology to Russians would be a complex process. U.S. multinationals have helped China build a technology infrastructure that enables a network surveillance system. Russia lacks such an online environment.
Is it in China’s interest to join Ukraine in the conflict?
China’s accession to the Ukrainian war alongside Russia would be at war with Beijing’s foreign policy line.
China has stressed in its foreign policy speech that it has no allies. China can trade in different technologies, but it would be very unlikely that China would send its own troops to Ukraine.
On the other hand, ideologically, it is important for China to challenge the idea of a bipolar world made up of two great powers. Helping Russia in the conflict would support China in creating the image that the world is multipolar and reinforce the idea that China is one of its centers.
Chief Economist of Nordea Wind Koivun it is difficult to say how much China is willing to pay to help Russia.
– Probably not very much, because economic relations with the West are so much more important than economic relations with Russia, says Koivu.
He has been following China for 20 years soon and says it is now being weighed for the first time whether China is willing to pay anything for a close relationship with Russia.
If China does not participate in assisting Russia militarily, can it help Russia in other ways?
China’s trade with the West is much larger than with Russia. This means that helping Russia with China would be more destructive than winning if the West decided to impose sanctions on third countries.
The United States is concerned that Beijing would try to help Russia avoid sanctions. The United States warned China that it would face severe sanctions if it helped Russia in its attack on Ukraine.
The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West could, in principle, benefit China, as they force Russia to cooperate with China and other countries that have not imposed sanctions on it. In addition to China, such countries include India and Brazil.
Juha Vuori, professor of political research at the University of Tampere, considers it probable that the West could impose sanctions on third countries. They would be really expensive for China.
The West could also entice China to join sanctions against Russia with promises to end the trade war.
– It is clear that if sanctions are imposed on China, their price would be much higher than in Russia, because China is much more strongly committed to the global economic system.
For example, Chinese banks are not going to break international sanctions because they would quickly be in trouble themselves. Under strict U.S. sanctions laws, economic sanctions also directly hit helpers.
– It has been considered whether China could help Russia enter the foreign exchange market. But China will not do that. Chinese banks are complying with the sanctions decisions because the banks would not survive if they were denied access to the dollar market, Tuuli Koivu says.
He stresses that there is no acute currency shortage in Russia right now, as gas and oil exports to the European Union continue.
What is China likely to choose?
The mere threat of sanctions could have a significant impact on which path China chooses.
If China starts supplying arms to Russia, it is likely to provoke a negative reaction in the West. This, in turn, could potentially lead to sanctions.
There are turmoil in China’s domestic politics right now, not the Chinese president Xi Jinping probably want to take the risk of sanctions, says Vuori of the University of Tampere.
China could benefit from the conflict if it resumes normal trade with Russia and is not subject to Western sanctions. The mountain considers it likely that China will continue along the same lines as before.
At the international level, China has emphasized that Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected. China has also suggested a role as a mediator in the conflict.
It has repeatedly stressed that the parties should sit at the negotiating table.
At home, the message from China has been completely different. China sees the war in Ukraine as the cause of the United States and NATO, and Russia is defending its own security interests by fighting in Ukraine, Vuori says.
At least at this point, China doesn’t look like a Russian savior, but Chinese businessmen may want to buy Russian companies if they get cheap.
The situation also applies to new agreements on energy supplies, and Russia’s position is weak.
– The Chinese know that they now have bargaining power. This will certainly see an opportunity to benefit from Russia’s weakness, says Chief Economist Tuuli Koivu.