On November 5th, it’s election time in the United States and over 240 million Americans, who are eligible to vote, have the opportunity to make their voice heard by going to the polls.
The choice is between the ex-president Donald Trumprepresenting the Republicans, and the current vice president Kamala Harris for the Democrats.
And assessors state that it will be a real shocker.
“An American presidential election has never been so even,” writes the foreign reporter Wolfgang Hansson in a column i Aftonbladet, where he continues further:
“A testament to how even it is is that both candidates are still campaigning in all the swing states.”
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Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. Photo: AP/TT
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Allan Lichtman has predicted winners in presidential elections before
One, however, who thinks he has pinpointed the winner of the 2024 US presidential election is Allan Lichtman who is professor of history at American University, which among others The evening paper reported on.
Using a method consisting of 13 “keys” or statements which can be either true or false, Lichtman has succeeded in predicting 32 out of 33 presidents elected in the United States since 1888.
The only time the method gave the wrong result was in 2000, which was also the most even election. In that nail biter it said between Al Gore and George W. Bushwhere the latter managed to take home the victory by securing the crucial state of Florida – by only 537 votes. This after the Supreme Court decided to stop a recount of the votes.
Al Gore. Photo: Gerry Broome/AP/TTGeorge W Bush. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP/TT
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How does Allan Lichtman’s method work?
So how does Allan Lichtman’s method work? Well, as I said, there are 13 statements, or “keys” as Licthman calls them, which can either be true or false. If the claim is true, it favors the incumbent party’s presidential candidate—in this case, Kamala Harris—while a false claim favors the opponent—in this case, Donald Trump.
At least six statements must be false for the incumbent party’s candidate to lose.
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Photo: Robin Rudd/AP/TT
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Who will win the 2024 US election according to Allan Lichtman?
And now Allan Lichtman has used the method to predict the winner of the US presidential election in 2024. To New York Times he has said that only 3-5 “keys” are false, which means that, according to the professor’s theory, it will be the candidate of the incumbent party who wins.
– Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. At least that is my prediction, he tells the newspaper.
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Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP/TT
This is how Lichtman reasoned about the 13 keys to this case, according to You:
But Lichtman’s method has been met with criticism. Many believe that certain keys, such as whether the candidates are charismatic or not, require far too much subjective interpretation and lack scientific basis.
Some have also wondered what it is that the method actually predicts. Until Donald Trump won in 2016, even though he got fewer votes than that Hillary ClintonLichtman has claimed that the method would identify the presidential candidate who would receive the most votes.
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