The presidential election in the USA in 2024 is around the corner and several Swedes have already placed their odds. In the election, the incumbent vice-president stands Kamala Harris for the Democrats and the ex-president Donald Trump who is running for the Republicans.
The election results will be announced on the night between Tuesday 5 November and Wednesday 6 November Swedish time.
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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Photo: Allison Joyce/AP/TT & Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP/TT.
Unibet’s odds expert Raul Valencia Lopez follows the Swedes’ betting. In an interview with News24 he explains that there are many different factors that come into play.
– We take in as much information as possible, opinion polls, what is written about in the media and how things are going in the various states, says Valencia Lopéz.
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The 2024 US presidential election: The final days
There is a lot happening this last week.
Valencia Lopéz gives an example: When the comedian Tony Hinchcliffe warming up the stage for Donald Trump during a campaign rally in New York, he jokingly described Puerto Rico as “an island of garbage”, which caused several Americans and Republicans to react.
Such an event can cause public opinion to swing and thus the probability that one or the other candidate will win, explains Valencia Lopéz from Unibet.
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That’s how good Swedes are at guessing the outcome of the US presidential election
As a rule, Swedes have been quite accurate in terms of outcomes in American presidential elections. Betting at Unibet has sometimes even been more accurate than traditional opinion polls.
– Before the last election, the betting was very “spot on” as far as Joe Biden and Trump were concerned, but in the election before that, I think everyone, including Trump himself, was surprised when he won against Hillary Clinton.
Probability of winning for the candidates over time. Photo: Unibet.
– Historically, we are a fairly reliable source because we include, among other things, opinion polls in the database. We have several different legs that we stand on, says Valencia Lopéz to Nyheter24.
There are many who gamble on the American presidential election. At Unibet, betting before a US election can turn over as much as betting before a Champions League final.
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This is how the presidential election in the United States will end – according to the odds
When Kamala Harris ran for president, the odds showed the highest probability of a win for the Democrats. Over time, the odds have evened out and with a few days left before the election, it looks like it will be a very even election.
– No matter what, we believe that this will be one of the most even elections ever. Some opinion polls show fifty-fifty.
Photo: AP/TT.
But it is not a complete draw. Unibet has so far concluded that it is a presidential candidate who has a greater probability of winning the election in 2024.
– Currently, it is Trump who stands as the tipped winner with a probability of approximately 66 percent, Valencia Lopéz tells Nyheter24.
However, he emphasizes that it can change at any time.
– The odds that are now I don’t think will be the fixed results that we will see. That can always change and probably will, even on election night itself.
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