Who will be the new Prime Minister in the coming days or weeks? Several scenarios, profiles and names are already on the table.
Who will be the next Prime Minister? This is now the question at the heart of this restructuring of French political life. The choice that will be made by the President of the Republic will also embody this shift towards a parliamentary era, which may be very brief, but which will break spectacularly with the presidentialism to which we have become so accustomed. In the space of four weeks, the Jupiterism of the Elysée has collapsed like the Colossus of Rhodes. From now on, the deputies and the executive that will be designated to take the reins of the management of the country will have to change paradigm: any form of governability will only be possible if it is validated by the National Assembly. Sacred revolution.
It is important to understand that without a majority, there will be no government. Or no stable government, which amounts to saying the same thing. Indeed, a simple motion of censure voted by 289 deputies is enough to dismiss a Prime Minister and his team. Which means that a team governing alone, with a relative majority of just 200 deputies, can only be ephemeral.
The parallel with the two years during which Macronie worked with only 250 deputies does not hold: the executive actually counted on the elected LR, allies of circumstance, who amended and voted on the texts in a majority of circumstances. Or who refused to vote on a motion of censure when Article 49.3 was used, which again amounts to saying the same thing.
In short, the main thing is this: in these circumstances and given the current composition of the National Assembly – frozen for at least a year – there are only two scenarios: the institutional blockage, long, exhausting if no one accepts the slightest concession; the constitution of a coalition between parliamentary groups or deputies who agree to lead the country on the basis of a government agreement. It is in this perspective that the choice of a Prime Minister will be made.
The president could thus opt for a Prime Minister from the left, which came out on top in the legislative elections, who would come from this coalition majority. On paper, this seems simple. But the Palais Bourbon is now full of Gorgeous knots: Several leading figures of Macronie, some re-elected as deputies, have already ruled out governing with La France Insoumise, one of the parties structuring the New Popular Front. If Ensemble manages to dissociate the PS, the Ecologists and the PCF from LFI, then it will have to find support elsewhere to compensate for the lack of around sixty deputies: a number that corresponds to the LR elected officials. But managing to establish a program agreement bringing together the support of the left, Macronie and the right seems to be a complex equation. All of this will therefore take time.
Furthermore, Emmanuel Macron will not make up his mind for several days. He is flying to the United States on Tuesday, where he will stay until Thursday. We should therefore not expect an appointment before, a priori, the beginning of next week, at the earliest. It could even take longer, due to the upcoming opening of the Olympic Games. The President of the Republic could seek an agreement from all parties to let the current team manage current affairs during the Olympic period.
Who will Emmanuel Macron appoint as Prime Minister?
Concerning the potential successors of Gabriel Attal – who will therefore extend his stay at Matignon – many names are circulating. The left has not yet agreed on an identity to present. On the other hand, it is generally agreed on two personalities who will not be: Jean-Luc Mélenchon and François Hollande. The possibility of seeing the three-time presidential candidate or the former head of state settling on rue de Varenne is ruled out by the PS, the PC and EELV, now the majority in the left-wing union.
Internally, the war is raging: Clémentine Autain, Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, Carole Delga… So many personalities who have said they are “ready” to take the reins of the country or who have been considered as potential Prime Ministers. But the NFP will have to ensure that it proposes a personality capable of achieving consensus, with solid legitimacy and to carry a left-wing project, even amended by a coalition. And a notable experience to bang their fists when necessary. Observers will also have noticed that several NPS executives have mentioned that choosing a woman would be very opportune.
Let us note in passing that the former Minister of the Environment in the Jospin government under Jacques Chirac, Dominique Voynet, is making her big comeback to the National Assembly within the NFP. “It is majorities of projects that we need for France,” she declared this Sunday on France 3.
In the event of an even broader national coalition government, bringing together the left up to LR, the idea of appointing an “old sage” from the chamber, capable of finding a balance between the NFP, the Macronists and LR, is not excluded. A “technical” and apolitical personality could also, in this hypothesis, be raised.