After the result of the second round of the legislative elections, a period of negotiations begins for the recomposition of the government. Starting with the appointment of a new Prime Minister.
“I will submit my resignation tomorrow morning to the President of the Republic.” Gabriel Attal at Matignon, it is only a matter of hours. Or rather days. As is the republican custom, after an election, the head of government and all of his ministers resign from their functions. However, nothing obliges Emmanuel Macron to accept it immediately. Due to the political recomposition that took place on the evening of the second round of the legislative elections with a relative majority for the left, a very present Macronist bloc and a surge of the RN (although controlled), the designation of the future tenant of Matignon does not look like an easy thing.
Thus, while the right person is being found, the President of the Republic may not accept the resignation and leave the entire ministerial team in place. He may also accept it, but without an appointment in the process, the government structure would remain the same while the new organization is being developed. In both cases, neither the Prime Minister nor the government will have any room for maneuver. It will only be able to manage current affairs. With the Olympic Games approaching, the door is left open to an extension of Gabriel Attal and his team. “I will of course assume my duties for as long as duty requires.” At the same time, behind the scenes, negotiations will accelerate to take over his succession.
Why the new Prime Minister will not be appointed immediately
In France, the government must be the image of the National Assembly. The objective is simple: the ministerial team must have the support of more than half of the deputies to be able to pass the laws (289 deputies at least). However, with a New Popular Front with around 180 deputies, the Ensemble coalition (Macron) and its 163 elected representatives and the RN with its 143 seats, no political force can govern alone. Therefore, an alliance, as is customary in Germany for example, will have to be formed.
Buoyed by its result, the left has proclaimed that it wants to obtain the coveted post of Prime Minister and form the government itself. It should not be that simple because it also wants to impose its program, in its entirety. However, it does not have an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Its weight is therefore relative and concessions will have to be made, mainly with Macronie.
However, the latter has already said that she refuses to govern with La France insoumise, one of the parties making up the New Popular Front. If Ensemble manages to dissociate the PS, the Ecologists and the PCF from LFI, then it will have to find support elsewhere to compensate for the lack of around sixty deputies: a number that corresponds to the LR elected representatives. But managing to establish a program agreement bringing together the support of the left, Macronie and the right seems to be a complex equation. All this will therefore take time.
Furthermore, Emmanuel Macron will not make up his mind this Monday, July 8, and is flying to the United States on Tuesday, where he will stay until Thursday. We should therefore not expect a nomination before, a priori, the beginning of next week, at the earliest. It could even last longer, due to the upcoming opening of the Olympic Games. The President of the Republic could seek an agreement from all parties to let the current team manage current affairs during the Olympic period.
Who will Emmanuel Macron appoint as Prime Minister?
Concerning the potential successors of Gabriel Attal – who will therefore extend his stay at Matignon – many names are circulating. The left has not yet agreed on an identity to present. On the other hand, it agrees on two personalities who will not be: Jean-Luc Mélenchon and François Hollande. The possibility of seeing the three-time presidential candidate or the former head of state settle on rue de Varenne is ruled out by the high authorities of the left-wing coalition.
Internally, the war is raging: Manuel Bompard, Clémentine Autain, Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, Carole Delga… So many personalities who have said they are “ready” to take the reins of the country or who have been named as potential candidates.
In the event of a national coalition government without the left being appointed to Matignon, the idea of nominating Charles de Courson is suggested. The deputy, re-elected for the 8the times in the National Assembly, is seen as a “wise old man” within the hemicycle, capable of finding the balance between the left, the Macronists and LR. A “technical” personality unknown to the general public, like Jean Castex, is also not to be excluded. This would make it possible to give a less political dimension to the function. How to obtain a consensus more easily?