As the second round of legislative elections looms, what will happen to the government? Who will lead the country?
The second round of the legislative elections had the merit of confirming one point: forming a new government will not be easy. Far from it. For the first time in its history, France should find itself, on the evening of July 7, in an unprecedented political configuration. In the National Assembly, the majority group should be the National Rally. However, the far-right party will not have the majority of seats (289). The second largest group should be that of the New Popular Front, the left-wing coalition. Finally, the presidential formation (coalition Ensemble: Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons, etc.) should only be the third group in number of elected representatives at the Palais Bourbon.
However, an absolute majority is necessary to form a lasting government. Indeed, if 289 deputies join forces against the ministers in place by voting for a motion of censure, then the government is overthrown and must resign. Enough to add a little more political chaos. Since no party will have the majority, alliances will have to be formed: to govern, the RN should unite with other deputies who are not in its camp. If he refuses to lead the government, then Emmanuel Macron will be able to turn to a personality capable of forming a broad coalition, including Macronist elected officials, some from the left and others from the right. With always the same objective: to set up a government and a program capable of gaining the support of at least 289 deputies. There also remains the hypothesis of a technical government as a last resort.
One of the three hypotheses will emerge in light of the results of the 2nd tour. Everything will depend on the distribution of seats. What can we expect from each scenario? First elements of understanding.
In what situation could Jordan Bardella govern France?
The president of the National Rally has said it: he only wants to be appointed Prime Minister if at least 289 RN deputies are elected to the National Assembly, i.e. an absolute majority of seats. If the far-right party does not have this minimum number of deputies, it will refuse to take up residence at Matignon. However, it should be remembered that the appointment of the Prime Minister is the responsibility of the President of the Republic. Emmanuel Macron would therefore not be obliged to appoint the European deputy as head of government, even in the event of an absolute majority for the Le Pen party. However, political tradition dictates that it is the figure of the majority party in the Palais Bourbon who becomes Prime Minister.
Who in Bardella’s government?
If the National Rally obtains an absolute majority in the National Assembly, Jordan Bardella could therefore set up shop at Matignon. But who would the RN leader bring into his ranks to lead the country? While he claims that “everything is already ready”, the young 28-year-old MEP has not revealed anything, except that Eric Ciotti, still the leader of LR, will have “important responsibilities in this government” (he is tipped for the Interior). Otherwise, other pillars of the RN could be given ministries: Jean-Paul Garraud for Justice, Sébastien Chenu for Foreign Affairs, Jacobelli for Defense, Tanguy for the Economy… The most coveted seems to be that of the Interior since in addition to Eric Ciotti, Fabrice Leggeri, former head of Frontex and Sébastien Chenu are also mentioned for the post.
In what situation can a coalition government be formed?
The other major trend in these legislative elections is the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly. In other words: a political group will have the largest number of deputies in the Palais Bourbon but not enough to represent half of the seats. It is therefore impossible to ensure that each proposed law will be voted on since there will be more opponents. This has already been the situation in France since 2022 with a main group of 250 deputies committed to Emmanuel Macron’s cause. Alliances, text by text, have been formed with other parties, not to mention the number of appeals to Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a law to be adopted without a vote by the Assembly, if the deputies refuse to vote on a motion of censure.
This situation could happen again, but projections suggest that this time it would be the National Rally that would have the most weight, without however having a majority. Since the far-right party has announced that it would refuse to form a government without an absolute majority, Emmanuel Macron will then be able to appoint a Prime Minister whose objective will be to form a balanced government between various Macronist personalities, from the right and the left, so that it wins the support of at least 289 elected representatives from different sides and is not overthrown.
A “wise old man” appointed Prime Minister?
In Le FigaroBenjamin Morel predicts the appointment of “an old sage as Prime Minister. A politician who displeases no one, capable of creating an alliance ranging from the extreme right to the extreme left. His or her mission would be to lead the government until the new legislative elections.”
It remains to be seen who could embody this figure. The daily puts forward the hypothesis of Charles de Courson, the oldest deputy in the Assembly and a centrist figure discovered by the general public during his opposition to the pension reform. Point recalls for his part that the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, is often cited for Matignon.
Who could form the government of the “republican arc”?
Will François Bayrou’s name also be slipped onto a small piece of paper? A Macronist from the very beginning, very close to the President of the Republic, the mayor of Pau has always defended a government of “national unity”. But with whom? The left and the “moderate” right? In recent days, he met with former PS ministers Manuel Valls, Bernard Cazeneuve and François Rebsamen, as well as Xavier Bertrand, LR president of Hauts-de-France and former minister of Sarkozy. The first milestones of a future government team?
On the right, Vincent Jeanbrun and Philippe Juvin are among the Macron-compatibles. The presidential party did not place any candidate against them during the legislative elections, allowing the re-election in the first round of the second named, in Hauts-de-Seine. Michèle Tabarot (9th in Alpes-Maritimes), Marie-Christine Dalloz (2nd in Jura), Virginie Duby-Muller (4th in Haute-Savoie), Emilie Bonnivard (3rd in Jura), Nicolas Forissier (2nd in Indre) or Julien Dive (2nd in Aisne) also do not have Macronist opponents. A sign of openness with a view to a common governance? And Gabriel Attal in all this? Nothing would prevent Emmanuel Macron from reappointing him.
What is a technical government?
This is a hypothesis to consider. In the scenario of a National Assembly without an absolute majority, a special government could be formed: a so-called “technical” government. This would not be made up of politicians but of civil servants responsible for dealing with current affairs, without undertaking major reforms. Objective: to allow the country to regain some political stability, avoid a succession of motions of censure leading to the overthrow of the government (at least 289 deputies who vote for the departure of the ministerial team), and reassure the financial markets. Enough to play the role of appeasement.
Who could embody this government?
France has never experienced this scenario. It is therefore difficult, if not impossible, to bring out one or more figures capable of being in charge of the country, both for the post of Prime Minister and for other government functions.
In Italy, which has had this situation several times in its history, it was personalities from the economic world who were appointed to head the government: a former governor of the Bank of Italy in 1993 and 2021, a former general director of the Bank of Italy in 1995 and a former European Commissioner responsible for economic issues in 2011. These choices of financial specialists were made to reassure the markets and allow economic stability within the country.
How long would this government last?
That is the whole question: how long could France remain in this situation? It should not drag on for long if the option is chosen. The minimum duration should be at least one year because Emmanuel Macron cannot re-dissolve the National Assembly before June 2025. During this period, the political parties are committed to a form of truce so as not to overthrow the provisional government, while waiting for new elections to be called. The idea is also to allow the Olympic and Paralympic Games to go ahead smoothly this summer, when the whole world will have its eyes fixed on France.