Is it because Emmanuel Macron sits on article 12 of the Constitution, which obliged him to “consultations” with the Prime Minister and the presidents of the National Assembly and the Senate before dissolving, that all the others political leaders have decided to sit on article 8? The fundamental law is clear: “The President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister.” Its power is, on this precise point, discretionary.
However, since June 9, the Matignon fair has been in full swing, a symptom of the current confusion of minds as much as of the decay of the political scene. “The Prime Minister is me,” says Jordan Bardella in The Parisian Tuesday, without excessive oratory precaution. While providing an important clarification: “To try, we need an absolute majority.” L’Express reported last Friday the message that Marine Le Pen had transmitted to the Elysée: “If I have 240 deputies, I will not accept power.”
For the RN, there are two scenarios. In the event of an absolute majority, would the choice of party president, Jordan Bardella, be imposed on Emmanuel Macron? The head of state will undoubtedly try to keep up appearances. In 1986, when it came to inventing the first cohabitation in the history of the Fifth Republic, François Mitterrand scrupulously took care of formalities while preserving presidential powers. To show that he remains free in his choice while the RPR has become the most important group in the National Assembly and has, with the UDF, an absolute majority, he asks two of his close friends, Jean-Louis Bianco and Michel Charasse, to meet Jacques Chaban-Delmas and Valéry Giscard d’Estaing.
But Jacques Chirac locked the entire system, and the two right-wing parties published a press release to constrain Mitterrand: “It goes without saying that any personality belonging to the new majority who would be requested by the President of the Republic to exercise the function of Prime Minister will ensure, before accepting, that the implementation of the new policy chosen by the country will benefit from the necessary support of all the political forces making up the majority.” Twenty-four hours after the vote, François Mitterrand spoke on television: “This majority is numerically weak, but it exists: it is therefore from its ranks that tomorrow I will call the personality that I have chosen to form the government. ” In other words, the RN, if it has locked the system and has an absolute majority, can impose the choice of Bardella.
The situation is very different if the RN, with the friends of Eric Ciotti, does not manage to exceed the bar of 289 elected officials. Whatever she says before the first round, can Marine Le Pen assume, at the end of a victorious campaign, not to participate in power? At the mention of this hypothesis, those in charge of the RN seem to have given themselves the word to kick in. “Only Jordan can answer this question,” says Jean-Philippe Tanguy. Or, Renaud Labaye version: “Political fiction, therefore no answer.” Will they go to LR to find the votes they lack, if that is enough? Or will they play into the institutional crisis?
Conversely, can Emmanuel Macron try to solicit all parties (excluding LFI) by asking them to form an alternative majority and making them responsible – them, rather than him – for the arrival of the extreme right if there is no agreement? does not succeed. Such an arrangement, arithmetically uncertain to date, would be politically shaky. Because the only precedent of a Prime Minister who did not come from the first group in the National Assembly was very different. In 1976, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing appointed Raymond Barre to Matignon, who did not belong to the main majority group. The UDF is even then the fourth group in the National Assembly, but it is the president’s party. And at the time, the parliamentary majority existed, it was constituted.
The previous Mac Mahon
In these moments when everyone is walking on their heads, we witness what we thought impossible: Manuel Bompard giving a lesson in the Fifth Republic to Olivier Faure – yes, we are there. The first secretary of the PS proposed Tuesday morning “a vote, it’s the only way to arbitrate”. The deputies of the Popular Front would thus elect the head of government. “If we know the institutions of the Fifth Republic well,” replied the LFI coordinator, “we can vote whatever you want, in the end it is the president who chooses a Prime Minister. The group which will have the most Members will make a proposal.”
He is already at Matignon and wants to play the “I’m there, I’ll stay there” card. On RTL Monday, Gabriel Attal doesn’t beat around the bush: “These legislative elections, which Prime Minister is […]. The French know me, I have my qualities, I have my faults. I am clear, I am ready, I am free. […] I’m the Prime Minister, I’m the one leading this campaign.” The head of government would dream of being in a position to impose himself whatever Emmanuel Macron thinks. He is leading the campaign in his name, the candidates Renaissance are doing theirs on his name The president decided to dissolve without ever saying a word to him? The head of government is trying to impose a balance of power on the head of state.
Don’t tell Emmanuel Macron that his name rhymes with that of Mac Mahon. In 1877, the host of the Elysée dissolved the Chamber and would eventually fold and leave. “When France has made its sovereign voice heard, believe it, gentlemen, it will be necessary to submit or resign,” launched Mac Mahon. Obviously, the Fifth Republic is not the Third. But it is an effect of this dissolution to risk ending up on a dead end.
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