The two missiles that hit Poland, not far from the border with Ukraine, could constitute a new stage in the war: has Russia hit the EU and NATO? The hypothesis of a Ukrainian shot, having wanted to stop a Russian strike, is on the table.
The essential
- Europe, the European Union and NATO have been on alert since two missiles struck Poland on Tuesday, November 15, causing the death of two people.
- Both explosive projectiles fell in Przewodówa town located near the Polish border with Ukraine, raising fears of crossing a new stage in the war led by Russia, if this missile was sent by Moscow.
- Article 5 of the NATO treaty stipulates that if a member state is the victim of an armed attack, the others take “necessary” measures to come to the aid of the country attacked.
- Who fired the shot that hit Poland? According to Ukarin, which immediately pointed to “terrorist Russia”, the first analyzes of these missiles revealed that they were “Russian-made” devices. US intelligence, quoted by the Associated Press, said “preliminary analysis may suggest the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces against Russian fire targeting Ukrainian electrical infrastructure”.
- If the shooting is of Ukrainian origin, NATO may consider that it is not an escalation but a form of accident, which will have consequences but without exposing the EU to an immediate war.
- “Poland can count on the support of France and our availability to support the ongoing investigations,” Emmanuel Macron said in a tweet last night.
- Follow the latest information on the Polish missile in this live.
Live
09:04 – China reacts to the fall of missiles in Poland
For China, which has multiplied gestures of rapprochement with the West in recent days, an escalation of the conflict would have serious consequences. “Under the current situation, all parties concerned should remain calm and exercise restraint to avoid escalation,” Mao Ning, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said in a press briefing on Wednesday. . This call for measure allows Beijing to stay on its line of non-condemnation of Russia, while insisting on the need for a rapid return to peace.
08:59 – Zelensky insists this Wednesday and again points to Russia
This Wednesday, November 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke by videoconference to the heads of government meeting at the G20 in Bali. “There is a terrorist state among you. […] The missile that hit Poland “is nothing but a message from Russia addressed to the G20 summit”, he reacted again today. The Ukrainian president, despite the American information of which he was informed, considers that this missile was sent by the Russian army. Volodymyr Zelensky insists that the G20 members condemn Russia more strongly and put in place far greater retaliatory measures.
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Russia defends itself… without being accused
Very quickly, all eyes turned to Russia after the announcement of the explosion. But the Russian Defense Ministry quickly refuted the Western accusations, citing “a deliberate provocation aimed at aggravating the situation.” “No strikes were carried out against targets near the border between Ukraine and Poland by Russian means of destruction” defended the ministry, in a message published on Telegram, adding that “the wreckage published being chased by the Polish media from the scene of the village of Przewoduv has nothing to do with Russian weapons.” At this stage, no one has claimed that Russia was behind the shooting, suspicions having simply been fueled by the type of material discovered. “It is logical that we approach the question with the greatest caution. Many countries have the same type of weapons and therefore identifying the type of missile is not necessarily identifying the actor who implemented it” , tempers the Elysée in a press release.
Ukraine in question?
If the Russians deny any shooting in this geographical area, their defense is supported by… the United States. Couldn’t the shooting have been initiated by Ukraine? This is what three American officials are leaning towards, according to Associated Press, this Wednesday, November 16, 2022. “Preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile amid the overwhelming salvo against Ukrainian power infrastructure on Tuesday,” the news agency writes. For his part, Joe Biden indicated that it was “improbable” that the missile was fired from Russia, without that sheds more light on the country at the initiative of the strike.
At this stage, if the support for Poland is unanimous, caution is required in the speeches of all the leaders. No formal charges have been brought against Russia or Ukraine. An investigation is underway in Poland, supported by the United States and members of NATO. “We say that you have to look at the facts very precisely. This is a case that you can’t be wrong about. In this confused context, the first thing is to go and see precisely what happened. We know that a missile fell in Poland, but we will not speculate on the origin of the missile,” a source at the Elysée told Le Monde.