GAS SHUTDOWN. The use of gas could be rationed in France during the winter. A call for a reduction in consumption has already been launched. For what reasons ? Who would be affected by cuts? Explanations.
[Mise à jour le 1er septembre à 12h19] The head is not yet to bring out the coats, sweaters and scarves. Back-to-school time has come and, given the still pleasant weather, autumn and winter are not at the heart of the discussions. However, while summer will gradually give way to cooler temperatures and more gray weather, many warnings are being issued by the government regarding gas consumption in the months to come. Indeed, the fear of a lack of this energy to supply the country has arisen in recent weeks. However, as of Tuesday August 30, 2022, France had filled 91.68% of its gas stocks: 93% for Terega and 90% for Storengy, indicates the European platform Agregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI). A slight delay on the forecasts, while Olivier Véran spokesperson for the government, had announced stocks at 100% at the end of the summer, but France can boast of having the third highest filling rate of the European Union, behind Portugal (100%) and Poland (99%). So why does the government keep talking about possible gas cuts? Who would be affected? How to avoid them?
If the stocks will be filled at the beginning of winter, this does not mean that no problems can arise. Indeed, when gas storage is 100% in France, this represents 130 TWh, or a third of the country’s annual consumption. In the columns of Parisian, an Engie executive explains that it is “the equivalent of two months of our national consumption”. These stocks alone, as they stand, will therefore not be enough to last all winter. Thus, it will be necessary to continue to supply them during the season.
This is where a first problem arises: because thanks to what deliveries will France be able to fill up its stocks? Russia, a gas producer, has closed the supply tap with France, prices are soaring and the government even fears that orders placed will not be honored in the face of the current tension on the gas market.
In addition, the weather will be a determining factor. For the time being “we have the volumes [de gaz, NDLR] which are necessary for us in an average climate” according to the deputy director general of Engie, Claire Waysand, present on August 29 at the start of the Medef school year. But in the event of cold waves or if the winter promises to be harsher, the needs in gas will become more important and will create “hours or days of tension” according to the Minister for Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
Thus, France risks having to ration the use of gas to avoid any shortage. Consume less, everywhere, to get more out of it: that’s the watchword for the coming winter. Thus, gas cuts could occur. But not everyone will be affected.
What are the risks of gas shortages in France?
It is difficult to assess the risks of a gas shortage which will largely depend on the weather forecasts or the cold peaks expected this winter. In the event of a season with mild temperatures, the risk of breakdowns will be reduced, but the government prefers to prepare for the worst scenario before the first forecasts from Météo-France expected at the end of September and announces possible gas cuts or occasional rationing. Companies and factories would then be the only ones affected by the cuts or at least “the first affected”. Individuals who mainly use gas for heating or cooking will still be called upon to reduce their consumption as much as possible “taking into account their means”. Elisabeth Borne and Olivier Véran have notably assured that households who are already in energy poverty will not be asked to make efforts. If occasional gas cuts were not enough to protect against the shortage, shedding operations could be organised, i.e. sudden and unexpected cuts.
Gas cuts as a solution? For who ?
The government’s goal remains to avoid gas cuts by anticipating and above all reducing energy consumption. The objective of a 10% reduction was set by Elisabeth Borne for companies and professionals, but also individuals. This reduction must be made possible by an energy sobriety plan that each company must establish in September. The first avenues for reflection on the drop in consumption relate to heating – companies could be invited to lower the temperature of their premises to 19°C this winter – or even to illuminated advertisements. The Council of State is also examining a decree prohibiting the lighting of company logos and premises at night.
Reducing the use of heating is also a measure to which individuals are invited. It would be a question of lowering the temperature by one or a few degrees to approach or reach 19°C. For households, energy sobriety must above all go through daily reflexes and eco-gestures. The government has announced the forthcoming distribution of a communication campaign on the right things to do to reduce gas consumption.
In addition, occasional gas cuts could be decided. “If all the assumptions are unfavorable, there may be restrictions,” warned Elisabeth Borne. But they will not concern households. “There will be no gas cut for households,” she reassured. These are the companies that could be concerned: “on gas, we are not going to cut off individuals. So we are discussing with companies that consume a lot of gas to see what the consequences would be if we cut off the gas in a company.” But the device is only in the draft, at this stage.