White smoke in the EU! European leaders agreed on Thursday June 27 to grant Ursula von der Leyen a second mandate at the head of the European Commission, as part of a distribution of key EU positions. The German conservative leader will still have to be confirmed in a vote in the European Parliament, just like the liberal Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, proposed as head of European diplomacy.
The heads of state and government of the EU, meeting at a summit in Brussels, have also appointed the Portuguese socialist Antonio Costa at the head of the European Council, the institution which brings together the member countries.
The EU favors continuity with von der Leyen
EU leaders agreed to grant Ursula von der Leyen a second term as Commission head. The latter was able to assert itself during a mandate shaken by numerous turbulences, from Covid to the war in Ukraine. Indeed, faced with the shock of the pandemic, it had piloted a gigantic European recovery plan of 750 billion euros, financed by unprecedented common debt, a tangible symbol of European solidarity. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it loudly displayed its support for kyiv and defined a strategy to end energy dependence on Moscow.
This renewal will still have to be confirmed by an absolute majority of MEPs: “There is still one more step […] “I will seek the approval of the European Parliament after presenting my political roadmap for the next five years,” insisted the German conservative leader. The outcome of this vote, expected in mid-July, is uncertain, with the usual coalition of conservative, socialist and liberal MEPs weakened following the June elections. In 2019, the European Parliament had only given her its confidence by a very narrow majority (nine votes).
Estonian Kaja Kallas at diplomacy
To embody the face of EU diplomacy against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the heads of state and government have chosen Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas – a determined opponent of the Kremlin. This 47-year-old liberal will succeed the Spaniard Josep Borrell. “This is a huge responsibility in these times of geopolitical tensions, with the war in Europe, the growing instability in our neighbourhood, as the main challenges,” reacted Kaja Kallas, whose position will also have to be validated by MEPs.
The one who provided resolute support to Ukraine from the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, immediately stressed that “the war in Europe” and “the growing instability in our neighborhood and in the world” were the main challenges of European foreign policy.
“If such aggression pays off in Ukraine, it could encourage the same elsewhere. We must completely discredit the tool of aggression,” the leader declared in an interview with AFP in December 2023. Her combative attitude towards Russian President Vladimir Putin earned her the support of several EU countries, including Poland: “Kaja Kallas understands the risks coming from Russia and Belarus,” praised Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. But this stance has also at times hampered her European ambitions, which she considered too provocative towards the Kremlin.
Portuguese António Costa appointed head of the European Council
Finally, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa was appointed new president of the European Council, the body bringing together member states. A year after his resignation as head of the Portuguese government for a corruption affair that was ultimately poorly substantiated, this socialist, renowned as a skillful tactician and pragmatist, will succeed the Belgian Charles Michel in December. “Building unity between states will be my main priority,” responded the leader at the end of the summit.
Having come to power in his country in 2015 following elections that he had nevertheless lost, the socialist resigned in November after being cited in a corruption case. This investigation put an end to eight years of socialist government in Portugal and paved the way for a new moderate right-wing executive. Finally heard by the courts at the end of May, at his request, António Costa was not charged and, on the evening of the European elections, the new Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro declared his support for his European candidacy.
Considered a good negotiator and deeply Europeanist, his pragmatism allowed him to extend his influence beyond his political family. As in 2020, when he visited Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban and helped convince him not to block the post-Covid European recovery plan, crucial for Portugal.
The new assembly of the European Parliament after the elections of June 9.
© / AFP
“A shameful arrangement”
These three candidates were largely favourites following the agreement reached on Tuesday between six European leaders – including the French Emmanuel Macron and the German Olaf Scholz – belonging to the “grand coalition” right/social democrats/centrists, in the wake of the European elections. But this arrangement has met with strong resistance from the Italian Giorgia Meloni and the Hungarian Viktor Orban. The Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister thus castigated on Thursday a “shameful” arrangement: “European voters have been deceived. (The traditional right) has formed a coalition of lies with the left and the liberals”, he had raged upon arriving at the summit.
The head of the ultraconservative Italian government, Giorgia Meloni, for her part denounced an “oligarchy”, deploring having been left out of the negotiations between the three political groups. Like Viktor Orban, the Italian intends to have more influence on the choices of the future executive in Brussels, following the surge of the radical and extreme right during the European elections this month. His ECR group also took third place from the centrist family of French President Emmanuel Macron in the European Parliament).
Rome is demanding “at a minimum” a vice-presidency of the European Commission, with a “significant portfolio” to influence industrial and agricultural policy, according to its Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.
Emmanuel Macron wants to reappoint Thierry Breton
For his part, Emmanuel Macron announced, during a meeting with his liberal allies, his wish to reappoint Thierry Breton as French member of the Commission, according to European sources. Since 2019, he has been Commissioner for the Internal Market, a broad portfolio that includes digital and industry. He has established himself as a figure in the Brussels executive by tackling the abuses of power of the tech giants.
Each EU country is asked to propose its choice for one of the 27 positions within the executive. But the French president’s comments in favor of Thierry Breton come three days before the first round of the legislative elections in which the far-right opposition (National Rally, RN) is largely in the lead.
The RN has laid the foundations for a showdown over the appointment of the French commissioner in the event of cohabitation between the head of state, in office until 2027, and a potential prime minister from its ranks. But the Élysée has a different reading of the institutions and claims a purely presidential prerogative. “On the French commissioner, he will not give up,” a regular visitor to the president told AFP, while other close associates acknowledge a legal vagueness in the matter.
Roberta Metsola favorite for the presidency of Parliament
Finally, among other key EU posts, Maltese conservative Roberta Metsola appears to be the favourite to win a second two-and-a-half-year term as president of the European Parliament in mid-July in Strasbourg.
The leaders of the Twenty-Seven also endorsed on Thursday the “strategic agenda” setting the bloc’s priorities for the next five years, emphasizing security, defense, competitiveness and the fight against irregular immigration.