Only the New Popular Front has a declared candidate for the post of Prime Minister. For the rest, names are circulating to enter Matignon with diametrically opposed profiles.
Following the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal accepted on July 16 by Emmanuel Macron, the 37-year-old senior civil servant Lucie Castets was appointed by the New Popular Front to represent the left-wing alliance as Prime Minister, following the victory of the NFP in the last legislative elections. However, Emmanuel Macron has already firmly indicated that she will not be appointed Prime Minister, like any other personality with the ambition of leading a left-wing government. The Head of State wants to appoint to Matignon the head of a coalition government, with majority support in the National Assembly. Which is not the case for the New Popular Front, despite its victory in the last legislative election.
On the other hand, a possible alliance between the presidential group and the Republicans has been suspected since the re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet as President of the National Assembly during the first plenary session of the hemicycle. The name of Xavier Bertrand also comes up insistently and could be the rather “consensual” element sought by the President of the Republic after the political storm. Monday, July 29,The current Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin did not fail to praise the LR president of Hauts-de-France: “he is a politician with great competence”, he could “greatly serve France”. “I have my friends, but I am not the President of the Republic” indicated the number 3 of the resigning government on France 2. So, who is really likely to gather an absolute majority or a sufficiently large number of elected officials to be able to avoid a motion of censure, and hope to join the Hôtel de Matignon, “after the Olympic Games”? Elements of an answer.
The possibility of a coalition prime minister
The left being the majority group in the National Assembly, it could shelter the future Prime Minister, but if a coalition were to emerge and become the largest group in terms of the number of elected representatives, it would become a breeding ground for potential heads of government. And a coalition would have the advantage of strengthening the Prime Minister by making his ouster by a motion of censure more difficult, but still possible as long as 289 deputies are not united in the alliance. Several coalition scenarios are on the table.
A coalition between Ensemble and Les Républicains
The presidential camp at the head of the Ensemble coalition has 168 deputies while the right has 60, the two united groups would therefore have nearly 230 deputies and become the majority. The two political parties have already agreed on several projects since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron in 2022 and have made it possible to pass laws despite the relative majority of the presidential camp. A coalition therefore seemed possible, in particular thanks to Édouard Philippe, capable of bridging the gap between Macronism and the right. In addition, the presidential camp and the right have allied themselves for the election of Yaël Braun-Pivet to the rostrum. If such a coalition were to emerge, the Prime Minister could come from the Macronist camp, more particularly from the right wing, but also from a center-right party like Horizon or from the moderate right. The Republicans would set as a condition for a coalition the appointment of a right-wing Prime Minister without giving a name. A possibility recently dismissed by the head of the LR senators Bruno Retailleau, during his presentation of a “legislative pact” in the presence of Laurent Wauquiez, indicating that he did not wish “to enter the government, nor a coalition”, but simply to make proposals on which the LR commit to follow the government in the event of a vote in the National Assembly, particularly on security or education. However, Monday, July 29, 2024, the current Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin did not fail to praise the LR president of Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand: “He is a politician with great competence”, he could “greatly serve France”. “I have my friendships, but I am not the President of the Republic” indicated the number 3 of the resigning government on France 2. Enough to revive the rumor of a coalition between Ensemble and Les Républicains (excluding Ciotti).
A coalition between the New Popular Front and Ensemble
The presidential camp or its left wing could also move closer to the left on condition that LFI, which is part of the New Popular Front, is excluded from the coalition. A condition currently refused by a part of the left that is reluctant to join the presidential camp. This option has nevertheless moved away after the re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet to the rostrum.
A coalition ranging from the social-democratic left to the republican right
This is a scenario that the presidential camp and Emmanuel Macron are calling for in a letter addressed to the French people on July 10, but which seems difficult to envisage given the programmatic differences between the left and the right despite points of agreement. On Sunday, July 28, 2024, a minister defended to Politico “a coalition” ranging from the French Communist Party (PCF) to the Republicans, excluding Ciotti. A desire assumed, even if “it will take time” because according to him, everyone is “in the digestion phase” since the shock announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron. On the other hand, this same minister quickly dismissed the hypothesis of a Prime Minister from the Macron camp. For him, “it would make no sense, we would do with 200, what we failed to do with 250” in the current configuration of the lower house of Parliament, he confided to Politico
The hypothesis of a left-wing Prime Minister buried?
The New Popular Front has become the most powerful group in the National Assembly in the early legislative elections of 2024, even though it does not have a majority. Buoyed by the results of the vote, the union of the left demands to govern and urges Emmanuel Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from its ranks. But in reality, nothing obliges Emmanuel Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from the New Popular Front, not even the Constitution. He is the only one authorized to decide who he wants to send to Matignon in place of Gabriel Attal.
On the New Popular Front side, the choice fell on the 37-year-old senior civil servant, Lucie Castets.She was an advisor to Anne Hidalgo on the budget, in particular the finances dedicated to the ecological transition. Her action as director of the budget, finances and purchases of the capital, a position she has held since December 2023, is praised by the mayor of Paris. “She is sensitive to the general interest. I take on competent collaborators or directors. And who feel concerned. Lucie is one of them.”All the political parties of the agreement, La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Ecologists and the Communist Party assured their support for this “consensus” candidate, in a press release on July 23.On the other hand, Emmanuel Macron has already firmly indicated that she will not be appointed Prime Minister, like any other personality with the ambition of leading a left-wing government. The head of state has only one scenario in mind, that of appointing to Matignon the head of a coalition government, with majority support in the National Assembly.
But a left-wing Prime Minister, regardless of the party he comes from, will not be able to remain at the head of the government if he does not obtain the support of a majority extending beyond the New Popular Front. While some personalities call for opening up to the left wing of Macronie and up to the maximum center-left, others oppose a coalition like LFI or the head of the PS who call for majorities by projects. Not only refusing alliances, the New Popular Front could suffer from dissensions between its own members: LFI and the PS have already mutually accused each other of deliberately prolonging negotiations to weaken the alliance.
The hypothesis of a technical Prime Minister
Without a majority and without a government agreement, another solution is to build a technical government led by a Prime Minister with little political influence and who can achieve consensus from the left to the right. The ministers would then be senior civil servants, economists, diplomats and specialists in each field rather than politicians. They would be responsible for running the country and its economy without introducing any major new measures or reforms while waiting for new legislative elections.
In this case, the appointment of a Prime Minister who is rather centrist or moderate on the left or right, and above all experienced in the role of “old sage”, holds the rope. Names like Dominique de Villepin Or Charles de Courson are good examples. There is also the possibility of an apolitical personality.
When will the Prime Minister be appointed?
Since Gabriel Attal’s resignation did not mean that his successor was immediately appointed, the Prime Minister will remain temporarily at the head of a resigning government to manage current affairs until the arrival of the new head of government and his ministers. This period could last as long as it takes to form a coalition or for Emmanuel Macron to think things over. Maintaining a resigning government until the end of the Paris Olympic Games seems conceivable, and preferable according to elected officials from the presidential camp. Others believe that the life of the resigning government could go well beyond that: until the opening of the next ordinary session of the National Assembly, i.e. until October 1. This hypothesis is raised by The world.