Where could you find an alternative to Russian natural gas? The EU is now hastily fetching gas from different corners of the world, but it is not enough

President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen has visited several countries over the summer to hammer out new energy contracts.

The EU and individual member states are in a hurry to replace Russian energy. Gas is especially busy.

Von der Leyen is not the only leader who has shuttled around the world. For example, German and Italian leaders have been looking for new energy partners in recent months.

The EU Commission has estimated that it is possible to replace about a third of Russian gas. However, it won’t be easy.

Jean Monnet Professor of International Politics Pami Aalto The University of Tampere compares the situation to building a puzzle.

– At least half a dozen significant suppliers are needed to replace even a large part of Russia’s natural gas, Aalto estimates.

Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, plays an important role, at least in the short term, in order to replace at least part of the Russian gas.

Aalto lists, for example, Australia and the United States as important LNG suppliers that have the opportunity to increase their production. In the spring, the EU and the US agreed that the US would increase its LNG supplies to Europe.

CEO of Energiateollisuus ry Jukka Leskelä considers decentralization of gas supplies important.

– It is essential that we do not go from the ditch to the source and into the arms of one large gas supplier in the same way as with Russia.

We listed the countries with which the EU has negotiated gas in recent months.

Along with Australia, Qatar in the Persian Gulf is one of the world’s largest producers of liquefied natural gas. It is also one of the beneficiaries of the energy crisis, when demand in Europe has increased.

– Qatar and the Persian Gulf in general have had the ability to increase volumes, says Aalto.

In March, the German Minister of Economy and Climate Robert Habeck visited the Arabian Peninsula in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The purpose of the trip was to negotiate, among other things, more liquefied natural gas from Qatar, German magazine Der Spiegel (you will switch to another service) write.

A couple of months later in May, the Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz and the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani signed an energy partnership agreement in Berlin.

France is also interested in the fossil energy of the Persian Gulf states. President of the United Arab Emirates, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan visited by the president Emmanuel Macron in Paris in June. The meeting between the presidents resulted in an agreement on gas and fuels.

Both the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are involved in the war in Yemen. In addition to the problematic military actions, the countries in the Persian Gulf region are authoritarian, which always comes with its own risks, Professor Aalto states.

At least EU Commission President von der Leyen, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and the German Minister of Economy and Climate Habeck have recently visited Israel.

Most of Israel’s natural gas is used in the domestic market, but a small part is delivered to Jordan and Egypt.

During von der Leyen’s trip, the EU, Israel and Egypt signed a Memorandum of Understanding on gas exports. The purpose is that Israel and Egypt would increase their gas exports to the EU region.

Natural gas exported from Israel is converted into liquefied natural gas in Egypt. With the agreement, LNG imports from Egypt to Europe are believed to increase.

Algeria accounts for about a quarter of Spain’s gas. However, relations between the two countries have been icy since Spain recognized in the spring that the Western Sahara, which was a point of contention between Morocco and Algeria, belongs to Morocco.

In July, the Italian energy company Eni signed a multi-billion contract as one of the parties regarding joint gas production in the southeastern part of Algeria.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz ended his trip to Africa in Senegal in May. The country has significant gas deposits, and Senegal is expected to become one of the major gas producers in the region in the near future.

Scholz said during his trip that Germany wants to implement projects related to gas and renewable energy with Senegal.

Gas drilling also affects the area’s nature, people and their livelihoods, the organization points out.

The EU, on the other hand, announced at the end of July its intentions to expand its gas imports from Nigeria. Even now, an estimated 14 percent of the liquefied natural gas imported into EU countries is from Nigeria.

In July von der Leyen and the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev signed an agreement in Baku to double the amount of piped gas within five years.

According to Professor Aalto, it is difficult to predict the situation in Azerbaijan far into the future. The area is potentially unstable. There have been reports of unrest in the Nagorno-Karabakh region this week as well.

However, the country’s gas volumes are small if compared to, for example, Turkmenistan, Aalto reminds. However, gas-rich Turkmenistan has a big interest in China.

– The EU has not been able to manage in this competitive situation.

One bottleneck for gas supplies is the small size of the LNG market.

– It does not cover the entire volume of Russia, but a part, the other part will have to be covered by cost-saving measures and switching to other energy sources, says Aalto.

The conclusion of new gas contracts also raises the question of the goals of the EU’s green transition, notes Energiateollisuus ry CEO Jukka Leskelä.

At the beginning of July, the EU Parliament advocated the inclusion of natural gas in the scope of environmentally friendly economic activities for a limited period. The Union is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030.

– It is an important question from the point of view of the EU, how long we can commit to acquiring natural gas from the edge of the world, says Leskelä.

You can discuss the topic until Saturday at 11 pm.