After weeks of very polarized campaigning, the American presidential election will reach its outcome this Tuesday, November 5. Some 244 million Americans are called to the polls. Who, Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump or Democrat and Vice-President Kamala Harris will be the 47th President of the United States? The results of the vote, to which the eyes of the whole world are turned, could be known the next day… And at most four to five days after the day of the vote.
This year, both scenarios are possible given the intensity of the race for the White House, reports The New York Times. If the result comes down to a few thousand votes in a handful of states, the wait experienced in 2020 could be repeated. But if a candidate does better than current polls, which show the closest election in many years, the outcome could be clear much sooner. Still, it can be difficult to understand state trends on election night due to red and blue “mirages”: some count mail-in ballots before in-person ballots, while others do so. reverse.
The issue of “swing states”
As in every election, the seven swing states which are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, should tilt the election towards one of the two camps. Unlike the states won over to the cause of the Democratic vice-president, such as California or New York, or to that of the former Republican president, such as Kentucky or Oklahoma, these seven territories do not clearly lean towards one side . In an extremely close election, the presidency risks being decided by a few tens of thousands of votes.
Polls in the seven key states will close from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. Eastern Time (midnight to 3 a.m. PST). The first indications of how the evening will unfold will be available in Georgia shortly after 7 p.m. and in North Carolina after 7:30 p.m. If Kamala Harris performs well there, it could suggest that the outcome will not just be decided in the states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the count is slower.
Conversely, if Donald Trump comes out on top in the southern states, Kamala Harris will still have a chance of winning. But we will have to wait longer to find out. During the 2020 election, which took place on Tuesday, November 3, the results of the swing states had not been proclaimed the next morning, but gradually over the following days… Until the results of the votes in Pennsylvania, on Saturday November 7, then won by Joe Biden, which opened the doors to the White House .
Regarding the vote on November 5, 2024, nearly 75 million Americans voted in advance, according to the count, carried out on Saturday, by the University of Florida. Almost everywhere in the United States, voters can vote by mail, or physically in advance, before election day. In 2020, the year of Covid and a record number of postal votes, counting them was a real challenge for the administration.