The announcement of the results of the second round of the legislative elections has upset the expected scenarios. So, who will govern France?
This is a scenario that few, if not no one, saw coming. That of an Assembly whose leading political force is ultimately the union of the left with the New Popular Front, on the evening of the second round of the legislative elections, with a group of Macronist deputies (Renaissance, Horizons, MoDem, Agir…) still retaining a little thickness and the National Rally ultimately a simple third group in the Palais Bourbon. All with a hint of Republicans who, with their sixty or so elected representatives, can still and always play a pivotal role within the hemicycle. But from then on, with a lower house of Parliament truly split into three, how will France be governed in the months to come? Who will be appointed Prime Minister? Which figures will occupy positions of responsibility in the ministries? Will the government team lean to the left?
At this stage, it is impossible to answer the question with certainty. As is the republican tradition, Gabriel Attal has handed in his resignation and that of his government to Emmanuel Macron. Only the latter has the power to appoint a Prime Minister. Who will the Head of State turn to? It is time for reflection. “Prudence and analysis of the results: the question is who will govern from now on and reach the majority”, indicated the Elysée after the announcement of the figures, adding that the President of the Republic “will wait for the structuring of the new National Assembly to make the necessary decisions.”
How soon will the new Prime Minister be appointed?
Let’s say it right away, not right away. During his speech announcing that he would resign, Gabriel Attal specified that he would “assume[ait] [s]his functions as long as duty requires.” In other words, Emmanuel Macron will not be obliged to accept it right away. As a reminder, he took three weeks before formalizing the departure of Jean Castex following the 2022 presidential election.
First of all, the future tenant of Matignon will not be known for a few days because Emmanuel Macron is constrained by his schedule. The head of state will not rush to appoint someone on Monday and he must then leave for Washington on Tuesday, for a NATO summit. He will not return to Paris until Thursday. We will therefore have to wait, at the very least, throughout the week. As soon as possible.
Because given the composition of the National Assembly, the President of the Republic will have the mission of finding a person with a program capable of gathering the support of at least 289 deputies. Otherwise, he would expose the government to a motion of censure which, if it were voted by more than half of the elected representatives, would lead to the overthrow of the ministerial team. So everything would have to start again.
The problem is that Emmanuel Macron will have to accommodate all sensitivities, from the left of course, from the center naturally, but also from the right. If the NFP came out on top, the head of state has already ruled out governing with the LFI deputies. So out goes these sixty elected officials, who could be compensated by the sixty LR who should once again join the Palais Bourbon. Finding a personality who suits the ecologists, socialists, communists, macronists and republicans will not be easy. Not to mention the programmatic points on which everyone will have to agree. The negotiations promise to be long and complex. Suffice to say that Gabriel Attal should make extra…