9:02 p.m., Sunday, June 9. France is plunged into a dizzying unknown, after the presidential announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly. Since then, the campaign has been in full swing to elect the 577 deputies who will make up the National Assembly and who will shape the future majority that will govern the country.
This Friday, July 5, the last day of the campaign, Marine Le Pen castigated the “moral lessons” of Kylian Mbappé who had called the day before to vote against the National Rally. Gabriel Attal said he was ready to ensure the continuity of the State depending on the scenario of the second round this Sunday which, according to the latest polls, should result in a National Assembly without a majority.
Today’s response: Marine Le Pen tackles Kylian Mbappé
A few hours before the quarter-final of the Euro football championship between France and Portugal, Kylian Mbappé suffered his first muscular tackle of the day this morning from Marine Le Pen. “The French are fed up with being lectured on morality, with being given voting instructions,” the leader of the French far right told the American channel CNN. “Kylian Mbappé is undoubtedly a very good footballer,” she admitted, herself “not very keen on football.” But “this tendency that actors, footballers, singers have to come and tell the French what they should vote for […] “is starting to be very badly felt in our country,” she added. Particularly when it is “millionaires or even billionaires who live abroad” who are addressing “those who earn 1,300, 1,400 euros per month,” Marine Le Pen stressed.
At a press conference on Thursday, the captain of the French team had estimated that there was a “really urgent” need to vote after the “catastrophic results” of the first round. “We hope that everyone will mobilize and vote for the right side,” he had insisted, like other players of the French team, such as Marcus Thuram or Jules Koundé, who had clearly spoken out against the RN.
Today’s figure: 51 candidates or activists attacked
Some “51 candidates, substitutes or activists” have been “physically attacked” in recent days, during the campaign for the second round of the legislative elections, announced Gérald Darmanin this Friday. In “a France on edge”, the police have made “more than thirty arrests” in connection with this violence, added the Minister of the Interior.
While it is still “a little early to draw up a typical profile” of the attackers, Gérald Darmanin mentioned the presence of “spontaneously angry people” or “political activists from the far left or far right”, while many violent incidents have been recorded since the first round of these legislative elections. This Thursday, the Nanterre prosecutor’s office opened an investigation for “violence committed in a meeting against a public elected official”, after the attack on Wednesday in Meudon of the government spokesperson, Prisca Thevenot, and her team, during an operation to put up election posters.
Today’s promise: Gabriel Attal ready to ensure the continuity of the State
During his last campaign trip to Paris, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal guaranteed that his government would be able to ensure the continuity of the State “for as long as necessary” following the legislative elections.. “We have a government that is hard at work, that is mobilized in all sectors, in all areas,” he insisted.
As for his possible departure from Matignon, Gabriel Attal said that he was taking “things step by step”. “I don’t want to give the impression today that I’m skipping the second round of the elections, because that would mean, in some way, that I have a little contempt for the French vote”, he added. The Prime Minister nevertheless affirmed that he would “make his decision” at the end of the second round and that he would tell “the French people clearly” what he intends to do next.
Today’s polls: towards still very high participation?
Will participation be on the rise again this Sunday? In any case, this is what several polls published this Friday are announcing. According to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio, the turnout for the second round could rise to 69%, an even higher level than that of the first round (66.7%). On the Ipsos side, the turnout estimate is relatively similar, estimated between 66% and 70%, in a survey published this Friday for The worldFrance Télévisions and Radio France.
We would have to go back to 1997, and the early legislative elections following the dissolution of the National Assembly by Jacques Chirac, to find such a level of participation in a second round of legislative elections in France. This would also be the first time since that election that participation would be on the rise between the two rounds: a sign of real involvement of the French in this campaign, despite the reduction in the number of candidates for a second round.
In terms of seat estimates, the National Rally still seems as far away from a possible absolute majority… And might not even come out on top this Sunday. According to Ipsos, the RN and its allies would obtain between 175 and 205 seats, between 145 and 175 seats for the New Popular Front, and 118 to 148 seats for the presidential camp. According to Ifop-Fiducial, the RN could obtain between 170 and 210 seats, the NFP between 155 and 185 seats, and the presidential coalition between 120 and 150 seats.
Our big story of the day: the “horrendous” relations at the top of Macronie
The past four weeks since the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron have been marked by a clear deterioration in relations at the highest levels of the State.
The last days of the campaign will have done nothing to improve these tensions. Gabriel Attal, Bruno Le Maire, Edouard Philippe, Gérald Darmanin… Macron now sees himself cursed by his own people. Yesterday’s Macronists no longer know what to do with the head of state tomorrow, as L’Express reports.