When it comes to energy transition, States are not far from a contradiction. Even less China, a sort of Doctor Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in this matter. Let’s immediately get rid of the Mr. Hyde side, the dark side: it remains the largest emitter of CO2 on the planet, almost a third of annual global emissions. Its electricity remains deeply carbon-intensive, almost 60% of which is coal-fired, and power plants continue to emerge from the ground. But recent signals have some experts saying that the country could have reached its peak in greenhouse gas emissions. This glimmer of hope, which must be confirmed, allows us to approach the Doctor Jekyll side: China is at the forefront in many key sectors for the transition to low carbongoing so far as to swallow up all global competition. There is no doubt that Beijing will further display its good profile to influence the COP29, which opens this Monday, November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
In these climate negotiations, China plays a leading role. “In 2022, it represented 55% of global investments in renewable energies (EnR), or 495 billion dollars. In 2023, it was 600 billion, double that of Europe,” recalls Alisée Pornet, economist at the French Development Agency (AFD). These amounts do not stop at the country’s borders. In two years, according to Climate Energy Finance reportan Australian think tank, Chinese companies announced $100 billion in investment in overseas clean technology projects.
“She destroyed the solar market”
“Today, China is crucial to achieving a certain number of objectives, because it has solutions that are rapidly decarbonizable and which are economically viable,” analyzes Arnaud Bauduin, manager of OFI Invest Actions Climat. On solar, for example, “it razed the market”, continues the expert. Xi Jinping’s country is the world’s factory for photovoltaic cells and has the largest farms on the planet – the latest, the ground equivalent of 2,800 football fields, was commissioned in the region at the beginning of June desert of Xinjiang. “China installed between 240 and 250 gigawatts of solar panels last year,” adds Benjamin Louvet, head of raw materials at OFI Invest Asset Management. “That’s more than the entire world, including her, the previous year …”
In wind power, the domination is barely less strong: in 2023, 4 of the top 5 wind turbine manufacturers came from the Middle Kingdom. “The authorities identified these technologies very early on as an important lever allowing the country’s specialization to evolve towards high-tech products and conquer market share,” adds Stéphanie Monjon, teacher-researcher in economics at Paris Dauphine University. and climate policy specialist.
On metals, the “elephant in the room”
To build solar panels, wind turbines or batteriesmetals are needed. Of the rare earthscobalt, nickel, lithium… Here again, impossible to do without the Chinese giant. “It’s the elephant in the room. It has a very clearly dominant position over many of them,” for their extraction or refining, says Benjamin Louvet. The leaders know this and do not skimp on the means to maintain this control. In the first half of 2023 alone, Beijing has invested nearly $10 billion in the mining sector. Light years away from other nations, particularly European ones, which nevertheless seek to gain sovereignty. “It’s simple: if our supply of certain metals is cut off, industries can no longer operate, particularly in the automobile industry,” continues the head of the asset management group.
This sector is also at the center of a standoff between Europe and China, after the agreement of the Twenty-Seven for the implementation of a surcharge on electric vehicles manufactured by the latter. Not only are these cars gaining ground locally – nearly 1 in 3 vehicles registered in China were electric in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency – but they are also flooding the European territory, where their market share has increased from 2 to 14% in four years. This is the visible part, with the constructors made in China. The influence is also less apparent. “There are a lot of joint ventures with our manufacturers. In reality, a European electric car is largely Chinese,” points out Joseph Dellatte, climate, energy and environment researcher within the Asia program at the Institut Montaigne.
Even in areas where France defends historical know-how, such as nuclear power, China is working hard. It has as many operational reactors as France (56), but gave the green light this summer for 11 new ones. An investment equivalent to 28 billion euros… For construction expected to take less than five years, much faster than the latest European standards. “Even if it is not much on its scale, China has done well, agrees Joseph Dellatte. Nuclear power will not be the primary source of supply of electrons, but it will make it possible to compensate for the intermittency of renewables.”
Story of a “responsible great power”
Chinese domination of key areas of the energy transition is obviously not the result of chance. Nor the result of a breakup – not really the diet’s style. “The concept of ecological civilization dates from 2007, then was constitutionalized a decade later. Innovation policies have been carried out since the 1990s and intensified under Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. This rise in power is the result of a strategy carried out in several five-year plans, so that China today arrives at the technological frontier of several sectors”, recalls Alisée Pornet. Ultimatelyall the resources invested in research and development “help feed an official narrative of a ‘responsible great power’ bringing solutions to the world,” adds Stéphanie Moujon.
The country does not intend to stop there. It is already placing its pawns in technologies whose markets are not yet mature. For example electrolysers, essential for producing green hydrogen. Or carbon capture and storage. “It is very subsidized, of course, but that does not currently allow decarbonization to be as effective and significant as running BYDs [marque chinoise de véhicules électriques] on the roads”, estimates Arnaud Bauduin.
Xi Jinping must announce his country’s new climate objectives in the coming months. Will it raise the ambition of the latter, namely reaching peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060? The return of Donald Trump to power and the probable turnaround of the United States in terms of climate policy could encourage him to ease up. In any case, the affair will be decisive for the global fight against global warming. According to an analysis published in Foreign Policy“the Chinese president’s decision could make or break the Paris Agreement.”
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