The European Commission nominates Ukraine as an official EU candidate. The road to membership is still long and rocky.
A flash of light for Ukraine today was provided by the European Commission, which, as expected, decided to recommend Ukraine as an official EU candidate country.
We gathered five key questions and answers on the significance of the recommendation and possible stumbling blocks on Ukraine’s EU road.
1. When can Ukraine become a member of the EU?
The Commission’s recommendation is just the beginning of a very long process, which could eventually lead to Ukraine becoming a member of the EU.
The President of France Emmanuel Macron has recently estimated, for example, that even if Ukraine were now accepted as a candidate for membership, it would take at least more than ten years for full membership to take effect.
Macron has suggested that Ukraine could be included in the “parallel European community” in the meantime, but its nature has remained obscure for the time being.
2. What happens next?
The Commission’s proposal to accept Ukraine as a candidate country for membership of the Union will be discussed at a summit of EU leaders later this week. No decision is expected from there.
Acceptance of Ukraine’s candidacy requires a unanimous decision by all 27 current member states. Politico magazine (go to another service) According to diplomatic and official sources, at least three countries still opposed Ukraine’s candidacy earlier this week.
The big EU countries Germany, France and Italy on Thursday expressed support for Ukraine’s candidacy, which will increase its weight. Yet, if any EU country opposes it, negotiations could take a long time.
3. Why is there reluctance in the EU?
Inviting a country at war to a joint club is a matter of concern in EU countries. In addition, Ukraine does not meet the requirements for EU membership by many measures. There is a lot of corruption in the country and the rule of law is not always being implemented.
With the accession of 44 million people, Ukraine would become one of the most populous countries in the Union and also the poorest member of the Union. International Monetary Fund IMF (moving to another service) According to Ukraine, Ukraine’s GDP per capita is less than half of what is currently the poorest member of the EU in Bulgaria.
With the post-war reconstruction and the already weak economy, EU-Ukraine would therefore inevitably receive a lot of financial support from other member states. Even EU countries struggling with their own economic worries are likely to be wary of taking on the extra burden.
4. How do non-EU countries view Ukraine’s candidacy?
Candidates for EU membership are currently Turkey and the countries of the Western Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, northern Macedonia and Serbia.
At least the countries of the Western Balkans could consider Ukraine’s “bypass” for candidacy unfair. They did not become candidates until years after submitting their own applications.
On Friday, the European Commission also recommended Moldova, which, like Ukraine, applied for membership after the Russian invasion began. At the same time, the Commission did not yet recommend Georgia as a candidate, but placed additional demands on it.
5. What if Ukraine is not accepted as a candidate?
The recruitment of a candidate for membership would be a huge disappointment for Ukrainians.
Ukrainian politicians and diplomats president Volodymyr of Zelensky have since emphasized the symbolic and moral importance of granting candidacy as a show of solidarity with a people waging a heavy defense war.
If the necessary unanimity is not found in the EU countries, the Union would be plagued by a tearing internal dispute. It would erode the credibility of the Union, whose ranks are already cracking after the unprecedented unity experienced at the beginning of the war.
Leading politicians in both Ukraine and the EU have presented the war as a brave struggle by Ukrainians for European values.
If, after all this, Ukraine were not even eligible for membership, it would be a loss of prestige for the EU as a whole.
“Ukraine is the only European country where people have been killed and shot because they waved EU flags on the streets,” says an unnamed senior EU official, Politico, referring to the 2014 revolution.
– We can’t tell them now that you’re sorry guys, you waved the wrong tickets.