what we know about the loss of two Russian strategic aircraft

On January 15, 2024, the Ukrainian army first announced the destruction of the two aircraft. The A-50 airborne detection, and the Il-22 serving as a flying command post. Very quickly, the Ukrainian air force published a visual claiming this double victory over the Russian air force. On the account followed by more than 234,000 people on X alone (formerly Twitter), the comment “Who did this?” » (Who did that?) appears, however, at the top of the page, leaving doubt about the circumstances of the destruction of these two planes.

As of this writing, on January 16, 2024, the radar plane has disappeared without a trace. The aircraft probably crashed at sea after being shot down by a missile. By cross-checking various analyst testimonies and satellite images, we were able to trace the A-50’s trail. The aircraft has already been seen parked at Anapa airport, located near the confrontation zone near the Sea of ​​Azov, and which has reportedly been closed to civilian traffic since the start of the conflict.

Ukrainian media Canal 24 believes to know that: “ the A-50 was shot down immediately after taking up duty in the Kirillovka region, around 9:10-9:15 p.m. It stopped responding to tactical aviation requests, and subsequently a Russian Su-30 pilot recorded the fire and crash of an unidentified aircraft “. A statement to be taken with caution, because it comes from a media broadcasting in one of the countries involved in the conflict. This same channel adds: “ At the same time, one Il-22 was in service in the Strelkovoy region. It was shot down off the Sea of ​​Azov around 9:00 p.m. The damaged plane wanted to land in Anapa. The pilot requested evacuation and also called the paramedics and firefighters “.

Two aircraft intended for airspace surveillance and serving as a flying command post would therefore have been targeted a few minutes apart. The first was possibly lost following a direct hit, the second was seriously hit, according to images published a few hours later. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valeri Zaluzhny, published a video presented as the radar tracks of the A-50 and Il-22.

Hit in mid-flight by a missile

On the afternoon of Monday January 15, a photograph of the damaged tail of a plane attracted the attention of the RFI Verification Info cell. It first appeared on pro-Russian Telegram channels before going viral on social media.

A reverse image search reveals that it has not been previously published. We see the tail (drift) of an Iliouchine-22, riddled with impacts. The traces left in the metal are characteristic of the explosion of a proximity fuse, that is to say the warhead of a missile intended to detonate just before impact in order to maximize the effect of the armed. The shower of steel balls struck approximately 80% of the plane’s fin.

The lower part of the fuselage and the aft tip were also affected. Obviously, the cigar-shaped piece located at the top of the tail has disappeared. However, it is characteristic of the “Zebra” version of the Il-22M dedicated to command. This part could have come off during the explosion, or been erased using image processing software. This cannot be ruled out since the photo of the tail, which initially appeared on Russian networks, seems to have been modified.

In this case, the registration located at the rear has been hidden, probably to avoid formal identification of the machine. At the end of the afternoon, a specialized magazine claimed to have found the original photo on a widely followed Ukrainian account, on which we can distinguish the last digits of the registration “….5678”. After verification, there is indeed an Ilyushin-22M belonging to the Russian army with the code RF-95678.

The plane wears the blue and white stripes borrowed from the civilian decoration of the Aeroflot airline, (which is not uncommon in Russia for so-called “special” planes), even if other IL-22s and IL- 20 of a fairly similar model are most often painted gray. The inscription BBC in Russian, or VVS in Latin character for Voïoienno-Vozdouchnye Sily Rossïi -Russian Air Force, and the red star confirm that it is indeed a military machine.

We are therefore faced with a body of evidence suggesting that the Russian plane successfully landed. However, to add to the confusion, the image of the wreckage of another IL-22 of the same version is circulating on the internet. This is an almost identical machine, but shot down by PMC Wagner mercenaries on June 24, 2023in Voronezh Oblast.

Crash landing

Concerning the circumstances of the landing, the damage suffered by the aircraft suggests that the controls (direction and elevator) must have lost effectiveness, but that it remained controllable. Geolocation work establishes that the photo of the seriously damaged plane was indeed taken at night on the civilian grounds of Anapa. The layout of the buildings and the control tower that can be seen in the background of the image conforms to the plan of the airport.

The fire truck which intervened on the runway on the day of the crash landing had already been seen at the same airport a few months earlier during an organized visit. The type and number visible in the photo of the tail correspond.

Moreover, at the end of the afternoon, kyiv finally recognized that the Russian command plane had indeed found refuge in Anapa. The spokesperson for the Ukrainian air force, Yuri Ignat, quoted by AFP, said it was irreparable. Also quoted by Agence France Presse, Alexandre Kots, a war correspondent loyal to the Kremlin, spoke on his Telegram channel of an A-50 plane “ fall » and an IL-22 « Safe “. The Russian Telegram channel WarGonzo was moved to “ the death of our fighters » regarding the A-50, and also claimed that the second plane appeared to have been able to “ to land “, although damaged.

The Beriev A-50, a central element for the Russian army

This double blow is enough to mark the spirits in the ranks of the Russian army. These are in fact two capital pieces of Moscow’s arsenal which have been put out of action. For the Russian army, the loss is immense. THE Beriev A-50 which seems to have been damaged in the Sea of ​​Azov, is the equivalent ofAwacs for NATO forces. It is a four-jet detection and command engine, fifty meters long, equipped with a huge radar antenna.

The device allows you to see into the depth of the opposing device. It is therefore essential in the air system to maintain air superiority. But it’s a rare plane. The Russian air forces only have around ten examples, of which only half are in flying condition. What is certain is that from the start of the war, the Russian air force was unable to use this device permanently.

The loss of such a strategic aircraft therefore constitutes a serious setback for the Russian forces and Conversely represents a rise in power for Ukraine, especially with the upcoming arrival of F-16 planes which will therefore be able to fly without fear of being spotted. Moscow, which already no longer had naval control of the Black Sea, is now struggling to also maintain control of the skies.

Friendly fire?

The exact circumstances of the destruction of two aircraft have not been clearly established. Are they attributable to Ukrainian missiles or to a shot from the Russian side? The doubt remains. Anti-aircraft systems Patriot of the Ukrainian defense were able to reach the device. But since their range is 160 kilometers, the system necessarily had to be deployed very close to the front line. However, positioning a system Patriot near the front is risky. This is why these systems are generally installed around major Ukrainian cities, far from Russian artillery.

But it’s not impossible either. Some specialists even believe that the Ukrainians have managed to set up a system Patriot said “floating” or mobile, which they move according to the missions. This system ” atypical “ could thus have surprised the two Russian command planes which thought they were flying in a safe zone.

Moreover, the damage caused by the drift of the Il-22M which crash landed suggests that the missiles used that night against the two Russian aircraft were equipped with a significant military charge, the image of the North American-made Patriot, but also for example the old SA-5 (S-200) still available in the Ukrainian arsenal.

That being said, the use of a battery of Patriot surface-to-air missiles is only a hypothesis. For other analysts, the scenario of an accident seems more likely. On the Russian side, the very poor coordination of land and air forces has been a constant since the start of the conflict. Russian defense batteries could very well have fired on an unreported plane. This possibility even seems to be favored by Russian military bloggers. In their eyes, fratricidal fire would somehow be less humiliating than admitting that a Western missile could have shot down the very strategic A-50 Beriev.